Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, reflecting the rarity of such drastic diplomatic measures amid ongoing global tensions but no formal actions to date in 2026. Despite rhetorical pressure—like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over remarks on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF urging expulsion of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over "Kill the Boer" comments—governments have refrained from escalation. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab and European nations to expel U.S. envoys in early March amid Strait of Hormuz threats, yet no follow-through occurred. The Trump administration's recall of dozens of its own ambassadors in late 2025 and expulsions of Iranian diplomats signal assertive U.S. posture, deterring reciprocal moves while leaving vacancies that reduce exposure. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical base rates against potential flashpoints like Middle East conflicts or sanctions disputes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$14,728 交易量
$14,728 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$14,728 交易量
$14,728 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, reflecting the rarity of such drastic diplomatic measures amid ongoing global tensions but no formal actions to date in 2026. Despite rhetorical pressure—like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over remarks on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF urging expulsion of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over "Kill the Boer" comments—governments have refrained from escalation. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab and European nations to expel U.S. envoys in early March amid Strait of Hormuz threats, yet no follow-through occurred. The Trump administration's recall of dozens of its own ambassadors in late 2025 and expulsions of Iranian diplomats signal assertive U.S. posture, deterring reciprocal moves while leaving vacancies that reduce exposure. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical base rates against potential flashpoints like Middle East conflicts or sanctions disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
交易量
$14,728结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, reflecting the rarity of such drastic diplomatic measures amid ongoing global tensions but no formal actions to date in 2026. Despite rhetorical pressure—like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over remarks on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF urging expulsion of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over "Kill the Boer" comments—governments have refrained from escalation. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab and European nations to expel U.S. envoys in early March amid Strait of Hormuz threats, yet no follow-through occurred. The Trump administration's recall of dozens of its own ambassadors in late 2025 and expulsions of Iranian diplomats signal assertive U.S. posture, deterring reciprocal moves while leaving vacancies that reduce exposure. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical base rates against potential flashpoints like Middle East conflicts or sanctions disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$14,728结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 71.5% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end, reflecting the rarity of such drastic diplomatic measures amid ongoing global tensions but no formal actions to date in 2026. Despite rhetorical pressure—like Hezbollah's May 4 call for Lebanon to declare U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa persona non grata over remarks on religious offenses, and South Africa's EFF urging expulsion of Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III in March over "Kill the Boer" comments—governments have refrained from escalation. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab and European nations to expel U.S. envoys in early March amid Strait of Hormuz threats, yet no follow-through occurred. The Trump administration's recall of dozens of its own ambassadors in late 2025 and expulsions of Iranian diplomats signal assertive U.S. posture, deterring reciprocal moves while leaving vacancies that reduce exposure. With seven months remaining, traders weigh low historical base rates against potential flashpoints like Middle East conflicts or sanctions disputes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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