Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, anchored by the breakdown of 2025–2026 nuclear negotiations following US airstrikes on key facilities in June 2025, which left Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium—sufficient for up to 11 bombs—largely intact and relocated to hardened sites like Isfahan. Recent Trump administration statements, including President Trump's March 31 remarks signaling a military drawdown without requiring uranium handover and Secretary Rubio's insistence on relinquishment, underscore no imminent diplomatic agreement or confirmed special forces retrieval amid high operational risks from deeply buried stockpiles. IAEA reports confirm pre-strike accumulation, but no verified transfer developments have emerged in the past week to shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
$12,701 交易量
最新
$12,701 交易量
2026-05-31
最新
$12,701 交易量
最新
$12,701 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, anchored by the breakdown of 2025–2026 nuclear negotiations following US airstrikes on key facilities in June 2025, which left Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium—sufficient for up to 11 bombs—largely intact and relocated to hardened sites like Isfahan. Recent Trump administration statements, including President Trump's March 31 remarks signaling a military drawdown without requiring uranium handover and Secretary Rubio's insistence on relinquishment, underscore no imminent diplomatic agreement or confirmed special forces retrieval amid high operational risks from deeply buried stockpiles. IAEA reports confirm pre-strike accumulation, but no verified transfer developments have emerged in the past week to shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$12,701结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, anchored by the breakdown of 2025–2026 nuclear negotiations following US airstrikes on key facilities in June 2025, which left Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium—sufficient for up to 11 bombs—largely intact and relocated to hardened sites like Isfahan. Recent Trump administration statements, including President Trump's March 31 remarks signaling a military drawdown without requiring uranium handover and Secretary Rubio's insistence on relinquishment, underscore no imminent diplomatic agreement or confirmed special forces retrieval amid high operational risks from deeply buried stockpiles. IAEA reports confirm pre-strike accumulation, but no verified transfer developments have emerged in the past week to shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$12,701结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability on "No" for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, anchored by the breakdown of 2025–2026 nuclear negotiations following US airstrikes on key facilities in June 2025, which left Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium—sufficient for up to 11 bombs—largely intact and relocated to hardened sites like Isfahan. Recent Trump administration statements, including President Trump's March 31 remarks signaling a military drawdown without requiring uranium handover and Secretary Rubio's insistence on relinquishment, underscore no imminent diplomatic agreement or confirmed special forces retrieval amid high operational risks from deeply buried stockpiles. IAEA reports confirm pre-strike accumulation, but no verified transfer developments have emerged in the past week to shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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