US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$367,046,745 交易量
1月31日？
否
2月28日
否
3月1日
否
3月3日
否
3月7日
否
3月14日
否
3月31日
否
4月30日
是
12月31日
是
$367,046,745 交易量
1月31日？
$571,796 交易量
否
2月28日
$420,868 交易量
否
3月1日
$160,345 交易量
否
3月3日
$921,360 交易量
否
3月7日
$0 交易量
否
3月14日
$0 交易量
否
3月31日
$73,927,762 交易量
否
4月30日
$269,049,107 交易量
是
12月31日
$21,995,506 交易量
是
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
交易量
$367,046,745市场开放时间
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$367,046,745市场开放时间
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
US-Iran hostilities, ignited by US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, have featured over 90 US strikes including recent hits on Kharg Island on April 7, alongside reports of special forces ground insertions for downed F-15 pilot rescues. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8 to enable diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz access, with Iran accepting amid demands for US withdrawal from the region; however, Tehran's Supreme Leader declared the war ongoing, and Defense Secretary Hegseth affirmed sustained US military presence with readiness for retaliation. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance against escalation risks from violations, ongoing search-and-rescue, or failed talks, with no full-scale ground invasion signaled yet.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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