Xi Jinping’s firm consolidation of authority, evidenced by ongoing military leadership purges and active engagement in state affairs through late 2026, underpins trader expectations that he will remain in power through the end of 2026. Recent public appearances, including a September summit with U.S. President Trump and National Day addresses, show no signs of diminished capacity or internal challenge that would prompt an exit before the 21st Party Congress scheduled for 2027. Health speculation persists but lacks confirmation of any acute condition capable of forcing immediate resignation. With the next leadership transition window aligned to that congress rather than an earlier date, the near-certain consensus on continuity reflects the structural barriers to abrupt change in China’s political system. Only an unforeseen health crisis or unprecedented elite rupture could alter this trajectory in the remaining months.