The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain view that it will not fall by May 31. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated decision-making authority, internal security forces have suppressed protest risks amid economic pressures, and recent diplomatic moves—including ceasefire extensions and military reconstitution efforts—signal operational resilience. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of coordinated opposition defections or renewed mass unrest reinforces this consensus. Late developments such as sudden leadership fractures, escalated external strikes, or rapid diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns of regime adaptation under pressure make such rapid change improbable before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$21,005,270 交易量
$21,005,270 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$21,005,270 交易量
$21,005,270 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain view that it will not fall by May 31. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated decision-making authority, internal security forces have suppressed protest risks amid economic pressures, and recent diplomatic moves—including ceasefire extensions and military reconstitution efforts—signal operational resilience. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of coordinated opposition defections or renewed mass unrest reinforces this consensus. Late developments such as sudden leadership fractures, escalated external strikes, or rapid diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns of regime adaptation under pressure make such rapid change improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
交易量
$21,005,270结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain view that it will not fall by May 31. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated decision-making authority, internal security forces have suppressed protest risks amid economic pressures, and recent diplomatic moves—including ceasefire extensions and military reconstitution efforts—signal operational resilience. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of coordinated opposition defections or renewed mass unrest reinforces this consensus. Late developments such as sudden leadership fractures, escalated external strikes, or rapid diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns of regime adaptation under pressure make such rapid change improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$21,005,539结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei underpins traders' near-certain view that it will not fall by May 31. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated decision-making authority, internal security forces have suppressed protest risks amid economic pressures, and recent diplomatic moves—including ceasefire extensions and military reconstitution efforts—signal operational resilience. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of coordinated opposition defections or renewed mass unrest reinforces this consensus. Late developments such as sudden leadership fractures, escalated external strikes, or rapid diplomatic breakthroughs could still shift dynamics, though historical patterns of regime adaptation under pressure make such rapid change improbable before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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