Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% implied probability to "No" on Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's institutional stability under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's large-scale missile strikes on Israel in mid-October 2024 and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites days later, underscored the regime's defensive capabilities without sparking domestic unrest or opposition momentum. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, maintains vocal calls for a national uprising from abroad but lacks a viable domestic base, facing suppression of dissidents and no constitutional path to power amid the unelected Supreme Leader role and controlled presidential elections. No significant regime-challenging events have emerged in the past 30 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$824,305 交易量
$824,305 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$824,305 交易量
$824,305 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% implied probability to "No" on Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's institutional stability under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's large-scale missile strikes on Israel in mid-October 2024 and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites days later, underscored the regime's defensive capabilities without sparking domestic unrest or opposition momentum. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, maintains vocal calls for a national uprising from abroad but lacks a viable domestic base, facing suppression of dissidents and no constitutional path to power amid the unelected Supreme Leader role and controlled presidential elections. No significant regime-challenging events have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$824,305结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% implied probability to "No" on Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's institutional stability under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's large-scale missile strikes on Israel in mid-October 2024 and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites days later, underscored the regime's defensive capabilities without sparking domestic unrest or opposition momentum. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, maintains vocal calls for a national uprising from abroad but lacks a viable domestic base, facing suppression of dissidents and no constitutional path to power amid the unelected Supreme Leader role and controlled presidential elections. No significant regime-challenging events have emerged in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$824,305结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 85.3% implied probability to "No" on Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, driven by the Islamic Republic's institutional stability under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Recent Iran-Israel escalations, including Tehran's large-scale missile strikes on Israel in mid-October 2024 and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites days later, underscored the regime's defensive capabilities without sparking domestic unrest or opposition momentum. Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, maintains vocal calls for a national uprising from abroad but lacks a viable domestic base, facing suppression of dissidents and no constitutional path to power amid the unelected Supreme Leader role and controlled presidential elections. No significant regime-challenging events have emerged in the past 30 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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