Absence of any official U.S. military mobilization or White House statements endorsing invasion plans anchors trader consensus at 86% "No" for a U.S. invasion of Iran by March 31. Recent U.S. actions remain limited to targeted airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthi and militia targets in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, aimed at deterring attacks rather than escalating to full-scale ground operations. Diplomatic channels persist amid stalled nuclear talks, while Israel's October 2024 strikes on Iranian facilities drew U.S. defensive support but no broader commitment. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric signals tougher posture, yet logistical hurdles and lack of imminent triggers like major provocations sustain low invasion odds, reflecting traders' assessment of contained regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$3,199,794 交易量
$3,199,794 交易量
是
$3,199,794 交易量
$3,199,794 交易量
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Absence of any official U.S. military mobilization or White House statements endorsing invasion plans anchors trader consensus at 86% "No" for a U.S. invasion of Iran by March 31. Recent U.S. actions remain limited to targeted airstrikes on Iran-backed Houthi and militia targets in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, aimed at deterring attacks rather than escalating to full-scale ground operations. Diplomatic channels persist amid stalled nuclear talks, while Israel's October 2024 strikes on Iranian facilities drew U.S. defensive support but no broader commitment. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric signals tougher posture, yet logistical hurdles and lack of imminent triggers like major provocations sustain low invasion odds, reflecting traders' assessment of contained regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题