Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. invasion of Iran by March 31, 2025, at 86.6% implied probability, driven by the absence of any official military preparations, troop mobilizations, or hawkish rhetoric from the Biden administration or incoming Trump team. Recent Israel-Iran missile exchanges in October 2024 prompted U.S. defensive aid to Israel but no offensive commitments, with Biden explicitly stating the U.S. does not seek war with Iran. Trump, who has criticized past Middle East interventions, prioritizes diplomacy and sanctions over ground invasions, amid broader U.S. focus on Ukraine and China. Logistical hurdles for such an operation further reinforce low-risk assessments, with no scheduled escalatory events on the horizon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$3,294,321 交易量
$3,294,321 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$3,294,321 交易量
$3,294,321 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
交易量
$3,294,321结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$3,297,595结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 18, 2026, 5:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. invasion of Iran by March 31, 2025, at 86.6% implied probability, driven by the absence of any official military preparations, troop mobilizations, or hawkish rhetoric from the Biden administration or incoming Trump team. Recent Israel-Iran missile exchanges in October 2024 prompted U.S. defensive aid to Israel but no offensive commitments, with Biden explicitly stating the U.S. does not seek war with Iran. Trump, who has criticized past Middle East interventions, prioritizes diplomacy and sanctions over ground invasions, amid broader U.S. focus on Ukraine and China. Logistical hurdles for such an operation further reinforce low-risk assessments, with no scheduled escalatory events on the horizon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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