Amid stalled US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan on April 11-12 that yielded no agreement, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% chance of no US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting optimism from President Trump's April 14 statement that the conflict is "close to over" and diplomats' efforts for a second round amid an expiring ceasefire. Pentagon preparations focus on limited special operations raids rather than full-scale occupation, following a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and troop surges including Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division. Ongoing negotiations, Iran's rejections of US terms, and historical aversion to major Middle East invasions underpin the lead for "No," though escalation risks persist if talks collapse.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$10,770,585 交易量
$10,770,585 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$10,770,585 交易量
$10,770,585 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid stalled US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan on April 11-12 that yielded no agreement, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% chance of no US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting optimism from President Trump's April 14 statement that the conflict is "close to over" and diplomats' efforts for a second round amid an expiring ceasefire. Pentagon preparations focus on limited special operations raids rather than full-scale occupation, following a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and troop surges including Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division. Ongoing negotiations, Iran's rejections of US terms, and historical aversion to major Middle East invasions underpin the lead for "No," though escalation risks persist if talks collapse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$10,770,585结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid stalled US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan on April 11-12 that yielded no agreement, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% chance of no US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting optimism from President Trump's April 14 statement that the conflict is "close to over" and diplomats' efforts for a second round amid an expiring ceasefire. Pentagon preparations focus on limited special operations raids rather than full-scale occupation, following a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and troop surges including Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division. Ongoing negotiations, Iran's rejections of US terms, and historical aversion to major Middle East invasions underpin the lead for "No," though escalation risks persist if talks collapse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$10,816,616结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid stalled US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan on April 11-12 that yielded no agreement, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% chance of no US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting optimism from President Trump's April 14 statement that the conflict is "close to over" and diplomats' efforts for a second round amid an expiring ceasefire. Pentagon preparations focus on limited special operations raids rather than full-scale occupation, following a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and troop surges including Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division. Ongoing negotiations, Iran's rejections of US terms, and historical aversion to major Middle East invasions underpin the lead for "No," though escalation risks persist if talks collapse.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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