Trader consensus assigns a 99.3% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by March 31, driven by the government's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which have effectively quelled dissent since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024—retaliation for Tehran's missile barrage—resulted in limited damage and no internal upheaval, reinforcing perceptions of resilience amid ongoing sanctions and economic pressures. Absent mass unrest, leadership transition chaos, or catastrophic military defeat, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain high confidence in continuity, though Supreme Leader Khamenei's age raises long-shot risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$51,704,453 交易量
$51,704,453 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$51,704,453 交易量
$51,704,453 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus assigns a 99.3% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by March 31, driven by the government's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which have effectively quelled dissent since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024—retaliation for Tehran's missile barrage—resulted in limited damage and no internal upheaval, reinforcing perceptions of resilience amid ongoing sanctions and economic pressures. Absent mass unrest, leadership transition chaos, or catastrophic military defeat, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain high confidence in continuity, though Supreme Leader Khamenei's age raises long-shot risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 5:59 PM ET
交易量
$51,704,453结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus assigns a 99.3% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by March 31, driven by the government's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which have effectively quelled dissent since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024—retaliation for Tehran's missile barrage—resulted in limited damage and no internal upheaval, reinforcing perceptions of resilience amid ongoing sanctions and economic pressures. Absent mass unrest, leadership transition chaos, or catastrophic military defeat, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain high confidence in continuity, though Supreme Leader Khamenei's age raises long-shot risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$51,704,459结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 99.3% implied probability to no Iranian regime fall by March 31, driven by the government's entrenched control through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and security apparatus, which have effectively quelled dissent since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites in late October 2024—retaliation for Tehran's missile barrage—resulted in limited damage and no internal upheaval, reinforcing perceptions of resilience amid ongoing sanctions and economic pressures. Absent mass unrest, leadership transition chaos, or catastrophic military defeat, structural barriers like IRGC loyalty sustain high confidence in continuity, though Supreme Leader Khamenei's age raises long-shot risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题