A U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective April 17, has halted IDF ground advances short of crossing the Litani River, driving trader consensus to 72.5% odds against such a move by June 30. Prior escalation saw Israeli forces reach the river's south bank, destroy all major bridges including the last at Qasmiyeh on April 16, and face Hezbollah ambushes that stalled deeper pushes, as in the April 6 operation near the river. The IDF now controls a buffer zone south of the Litani, demolishing structures and warning residents not to return southward. While the truce remains fragile amid ongoing ceasefire talks for a permanent deal aligned with UN Resolution 1701, de-escalation signals and Hezbollah's resilience have tempered expectations for further incursion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$385,525 交易量
$385,525 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$385,525 交易量
$385,525 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective April 17, has halted IDF ground advances short of crossing the Litani River, driving trader consensus to 72.5% odds against such a move by June 30. Prior escalation saw Israeli forces reach the river's south bank, destroy all major bridges including the last at Qasmiyeh on April 16, and face Hezbollah ambushes that stalled deeper pushes, as in the April 6 operation near the river. The IDF now controls a buffer zone south of the Litani, demolishing structures and warning residents not to return southward. While the truce remains fragile amid ongoing ceasefire talks for a permanent deal aligned with UN Resolution 1701, de-escalation signals and Hezbollah's resilience have tempered expectations for further incursion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$385,525结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective April 17, has halted IDF ground advances short of crossing the Litani River, driving trader consensus to 72.5% odds against such a move by June 30. Prior escalation saw Israeli forces reach the river's south bank, destroy all major bridges including the last at Qasmiyeh on April 16, and face Hezbollah ambushes that stalled deeper pushes, as in the April 6 operation near the river. The IDF now controls a buffer zone south of the Litani, demolishing structures and warning residents not to return southward. While the truce remains fragile amid ongoing ceasefire talks for a permanent deal aligned with UN Resolution 1701, de-escalation signals and Hezbollah's resilience have tempered expectations for further incursion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$385,525结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A U.S.-backed 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, effective April 17, has halted IDF ground advances short of crossing the Litani River, driving trader consensus to 72.5% odds against such a move by June 30. Prior escalation saw Israeli forces reach the river's south bank, destroy all major bridges including the last at Qasmiyeh on April 16, and face Hezbollah ambushes that stalled deeper pushes, as in the April 6 operation near the river. The IDF now controls a buffer zone south of the Litani, demolishing structures and warning residents not to return southward. While the truce remains fragile amid ongoing ceasefire talks for a permanent deal aligned with UN Resolution 1701, de-escalation signals and Hezbollah's resilience have tempered expectations for further incursion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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