The Israel-Hezbollah conflict, reignited on March 2, 2026, after the prior November 2024 ceasefire collapsed, continues with daily airstrikes and ground operations, driving trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected negotiations under fire as "surrender" on March 25, vowing unlimited attacks amid Israeli advances into a southern Lebanon buffer zone south of the Litani River. Iran conditioned any broader ceasefire on halting Lebanon fighting, while Paris talks collapsed earlier this month over disarmament demands. Israeli strikes intensified against Hezbollah and Iran targets as of March 26, with U.S.-led diplomacy stalled ahead of the Trump administration transition; no major diplomatic breakthroughs are scheduled, leaving escalation risks high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$371,620 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
3月31日
3%
6月30日
40%
4月30日
14%
$371,620 交易量
3月31日
$331,830 交易量
3%
6月30日
$38,427 交易量
40%
4月30日
$1,363 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Israel-Hezbollah conflict, reignited on March 2, 2026, after the prior November 2024 ceasefire collapsed, continues with daily airstrikes and ground operations, driving trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected negotiations under fire as "surrender" on March 25, vowing unlimited attacks amid Israeli advances into a southern Lebanon buffer zone south of the Litani River. Iran conditioned any broader ceasefire on halting Lebanon fighting, while Paris talks collapsed earlier this month over disarmament demands. Israeli strikes intensified against Hezbollah and Iran targets as of March 26, with U.S.-led diplomacy stalled ahead of the Trump administration transition; no major diplomatic breakthroughs are scheduled, leaving escalation risks high.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$371,620结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.The Israel-Hezbollah conflict, reignited on March 2, 2026, after the prior November 2024 ceasefire collapsed, continues with daily airstrikes and ground operations, driving trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected negotiations under fire as "surrender" on March 25, vowing unlimited attacks amid Israeli advances into a southern Lebanon buffer zone south of the Litani River. Iran conditioned any broader ceasefire on halting Lebanon fighting, while Paris talks collapsed earlier this month over disarmament demands. Israeli strikes intensified against Hezbollah and Iran targets as of March 26, with U.S.-led diplomacy stalled ahead of the Trump administration transition; no major diplomatic breakthroughs are scheduled, leaving escalation risks high.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$371,620结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Israel-Hezbollah conflict, reignited on March 2, 2026, after the prior November 2024 ceasefire collapsed, continues with daily airstrikes and ground operations, driving trader skepticism on near-term de-escalation. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected negotiations under fire as "surrender" on March 25, vowing unlimited attacks amid Israeli advances into a southern Lebanon buffer zone south of the Litani River. Iran conditioned any broader ceasefire on halting Lebanon fighting, while Paris talks collapsed earlier this month over disarmament demands. Israeli strikes intensified against Hezbollah and Iran targets as of March 26, with U.S.-led diplomacy stalled ahead of the Trump administration transition; no major diplomatic breakthroughs are scheduled, leaving escalation risks high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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