Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, Iran has imposed strict controls on the Strait of Hormuz, channeling commercial traffic through an IRGC-monitored northern corridor with tolls for non-U.S. allies, as evidenced by yesterday's escort of two Pakistani cargo ships and a trickle of others like Indian LPG tankers. No foreign warships have confirmed transits through the narrowest waterway segment since early March, despite U.S. amphibious groups and 2,200 Marines steaming toward the area, India's Operation Urja Suraksha deploying five warships for energy shipment escorts, and UK-France-led coalition talks involving 30 nations for mine clearance and patrols. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic signals, with upcoming multinational naval deployments potentially tipping probabilities before April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
$25,033 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
美国
38%
United Kingdom
18%
France
7%
India
4%
Pakistan
3%
Japan
3%
Greece
3%
Italy
2%
Canada
2%
Netherlands
2%
Germany
1%
$25,033 交易量
美国
$3,675 交易量
38%
United Kingdom
$2,504 交易量
18%
France
$1,580 交易量
7%
India
$4,494 交易量
4%
Pakistan
$2,584 交易量
3%
Japan
$3,206 交易量
3%
Greece
$2,225 交易量
3%
Italy
$1,350 交易量
2%
Canada
$1,232 交易量
2%
Netherlands
$1,411 交易量
2%
Germany
$1,075 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, Iran has imposed strict controls on the Strait of Hormuz, channeling commercial traffic through an IRGC-monitored northern corridor with tolls for non-U.S. allies, as evidenced by yesterday's escort of two Pakistani cargo ships and a trickle of others like Indian LPG tankers. No foreign warships have confirmed transits through the narrowest waterway segment since early March, despite U.S. amphibious groups and 2,200 Marines steaming toward the area, India's Operation Urja Suraksha deploying five warships for energy shipment escorts, and UK-France-led coalition talks involving 30 nations for mine clearance and patrols. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic signals, with upcoming multinational naval deployments potentially tipping probabilities before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
交易量
$25,033结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, Iran has imposed strict controls on the Strait of Hormuz, channeling commercial traffic through an IRGC-monitored northern corridor with tolls for non-U.S. allies, as evidenced by yesterday's escort of two Pakistani cargo ships and a trickle of others like Indian LPG tankers. No foreign warships have confirmed transits through the narrowest waterway segment since early March, despite U.S. amphibious groups and 2,200 Marines steaming toward the area, India's Operation Urja Suraksha deploying five warships for energy shipment escorts, and UK-France-led coalition talks involving 30 nations for mine clearance and patrols. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic signals, with upcoming multinational naval deployments potentially tipping probabilities before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$25,033结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, Iran has imposed strict controls on the Strait of Hormuz, channeling commercial traffic through an IRGC-monitored northern corridor with tolls for non-U.S. allies, as evidenced by yesterday's escort of two Pakistani cargo ships and a trickle of others like Indian LPG tankers. No foreign warships have confirmed transits through the narrowest waterway segment since early March, despite U.S. amphibious groups and 2,200 Marines steaming toward the area, India's Operation Urja Suraksha deploying five warships for energy shipment escorts, and UK-France-led coalition talks involving 30 nations for mine clearance and patrols. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic signals, with upcoming multinational naval deployments potentially tipping probabilities before April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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