Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability against further Israeli military action specifically targeting Iranian power plants by April 30, driven by President Trump's recent extension of deadlines for energy infrastructure attacks and emphasis on diplomatic negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Israel confirmed airstrikes on Iranian steel factories and nuclear sites including Bushehr last week, prompting Iranian missile barrages and threats against Israeli power facilities, but no verified hits on conventional power plants have materialized amid mutual warnings of escalation. Ongoing ceasefire talks and air superiority operations over western Iran underscore the closely contested odds, with procedural pauses tempering bets on additional power grid targeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability against further Israeli military action specifically targeting Iranian power plants by April 30, driven by President Trump's recent extension of deadlines for energy infrastructure attacks and emphasis on diplomatic negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Israel confirmed airstrikes on Iranian steel factories and nuclear sites including Bushehr last week, prompting Iranian missile barrages and threats against Israeli power facilities, but no verified hits on conventional power plants have materialized amid mutual warnings of escalation. Ongoing ceasefire talks and air superiority operations over western Iran underscore the closely contested odds, with procedural pauses tempering bets on additional power grid targeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
交易量
$3,368结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability against further Israeli military action specifically targeting Iranian power plants by April 30, driven by President Trump's recent extension of deadlines for energy infrastructure attacks and emphasis on diplomatic negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Israel confirmed airstrikes on Iranian steel factories and nuclear sites including Bushehr last week, prompting Iranian missile barrages and threats against Israeli power facilities, but no verified hits on conventional power plants have materialized amid mutual warnings of escalation. Ongoing ceasefire talks and air superiority operations over western Iran underscore the closely contested odds, with procedural pauses tempering bets on additional power grid targeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any power plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,368结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February 2026, trader consensus prices a 56.5% implied probability against further Israeli military action specifically targeting Iranian power plants by April 30, driven by President Trump's recent extension of deadlines for energy infrastructure attacks and emphasis on diplomatic negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Israel confirmed airstrikes on Iranian steel factories and nuclear sites including Bushehr last week, prompting Iranian missile barrages and threats against Israeli power facilities, but no verified hits on conventional power plants have materialized amid mutual warnings of escalation. Ongoing ceasefire talks and air superiority operations over western Iran underscore the closely contested odds, with procedural pauses tempering bets on additional power grid targeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题