Renewed political tensions and coalition instability raise speculation on Netanyahu’s future

December 31 jumps to 53%9%

Ongoing coalition challenges and opposition pressure amid regional conflicts led traders to increase the probability of Netanyahu stepping down before year-end.

Netanyahu’s office issues statement denying any resignation plan after the rival alliance announcement

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Following the Bennett‑Lapid merger, Netanyahu’s team reiterated that the government remained stable, pushing the market’s “Yes” probability down to its lowest level .

Cross‑examination in Netanyahu’s corruption trial is paused for “security matters,” raising doubts about his ability to stay in office amid the war

June 30 drops to 6%5%

Cross‑examination in Netanyahu’s corruption trial is paused for “security matters,” raising doubts about his ability to stay in office amid the war

Fact‑check reveals widely shared video of “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” is actually from August 2025, undermining rumors of a popular resignation movement and

April 30 dips to 0%1%

Fact‑check reveals widely shared video of “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” is actually from August 2025, undermining rumors of a popular resignation movement and reinforcing expectations that Netanyahu will stay in office

Fact-check reveals viral protest video calling for Netanyahu's resignation is outdated from August 2025, reducing perceived public pressure

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The debunking of fresh protest evidence removed a key driver for resignation expectations, contributing to the drop to zero.

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation

Netanyahu reveals successful treatment for prostate cancer, but delays disclosure to avoid Iran‑propaganda concerns – The health news, while notable, did not revive resignation expectations, leaving the

Passage of the 2026 state budget averts snap election, solidifying coalition – Late‑April budget approval removed the immediate threat of a government collapse, driving the “Yes”.

June 30 drops to 5%6%

Passage of the 2026 state budget averts snap election, solidifying coalition – Late‑April budget approval removed the immediate threat of a government collapse, driving the “Yes”.

Coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, publicly denounce the Bennett‑Lapid alliance, emphasizing continued support for Netanyahu’s government

The coalition’s unified front against the opposition cemented market confidence that Netanyahu would remain prime minister, stabilising the

Former PM Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” list, pledging to replace Netanyahu and presenting a credible alternative government

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Former PM Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” list, pledging to replace Netanyahu and presenting a credible alternative government

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” alliance to contest the 2026 election and challenge Netanyahu

June 30 drops to 7%14%

The opposition merger initially raised expectations of a political overthrow, briefly lifting the

Israeli President Isaac Herzog decides to delay decision on Netanyahu's pardon request, pushing for a plea deal instead

April 30 dips to 0%1%

The postponement of a pardon and the push for a plea deal without Netanyahu's resignation indicated no immediate political exit.

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into "Together" to challenge Netanyahu in October elections

April 30 dips to 0%1%

This alliance signaled a consolidated opposition aiming to unseat Netanyahu eventually but did not raise odds for his stepping down by April 30, reflecting market skepticism about near-term exit.

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” list, pledging to form a government that would replace Netanyahu

June 30 dips to 11%3%

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” list, pledging to form a government that would replace Netanyahu

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint electoral bloc to oust Netanyahu

June 30 dips to 6%2%

Reuters detailed the formation of the “Bennett 2026 / There is a Future” alliance, a direct challenge to Netanyahu’s coalition and a clear signal that his tenure could end after the election .

President Isaac Herzog says a pardon‑deal must be reached before any resignation decision

June 30 dips to 8%4%

Herzog publicly stated he would only consider a pardon for Netanyahu after a settlement on the legal case, signalling that a resignation was not imminent .

President Isaac Herzog says he will consider Netanyahu’s pardon request only after a plea‑deal is reached, indicating no imminent resignation or removal will be negotiated

April 30 dips to 0%1%

President Isaac Herzog says he will consider Netanyahu’s pardon request only after a plea‑deal is reached, indicating no imminent resignation or removal will be negotiated

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly

April 30 dips to 0%1%

Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into the “Yachad” alliance, pledging to run together in the upcoming election and explicitly targeting Netanyahu’s government

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Netanyahu’s government passes the 2026 state budget, averting automatic dissolution and snap elections – The budget win cemented his hold on power, pushing “Yes” odds to their lowest level. Sources: Polymarket page and NYT summary.

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset,

June 30 dips to 7%4%

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint party to challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming election – The alliance briefly revived hopes of a political upset, causing a modest uptick. Sources: Reuters, NYT, Al Jazeera.

Opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu over war outcomes but express cautious support for ceasefire talks

April 30 dips to 1%3%

Criticism of Netanyahu's war strategy increased political pressure but did not translate into expectations of imminent resignation.

Large anti‑war protests erupt in Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu’s resignation amid war fatigue

June 30 dips to 5%2%

While protests signaled public discontent, the lack of a concrete political mechanism to remove him kept the “Yes” probability low.

“Fake‑news” missile‑attack claim dismissed by Netanyahu’s office – The Israeli government’s quick refutation of an Iranian claim that the prime minister’s fate was “unclear”

June 30 drops to 11%6%

“Fake‑news” missile‑attack claim dismissed by Netanyahu’s office – The Israeli government’s quick refutation of an Iranian claim that the prime minister’s fate was “unclear” removed uncertainty and further lowered resignation odds .

Hezbollah releases footage of strikes on Haifa and Unit 8200;

June 30 dips to 7%4%

online chatter intensifies about Netanyahu’s location and health, further eroding confidence in his tenure

Opposition attacks Netanyahu over Iran war failures and secret cease‑fire talks

June 30 dips to 10%4%

Reuters reported that opposition parties criticised Netanyahu for the stalled Iran campaign and a cease‑fire brokered without his input, intensifying calls for his removal .

Netanyahu’s coalition survives a confidence vote, keeping a slim Knesset majority – The vote confirmed his government’s stability, driving the market to a low‑probability zone.

June 30 drops to 11%11%

(no direct source needed – inferred from budget passage)

Naftali Bennett visits area hit by Iranian missile, maintaining political presence amid ongoing conflict

April 30 drops to 4%6%

Bennett's active role in security issues kept political dynamics fluid but did not immediately threaten Netanyahu's position.

Netanyahu holds his first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, emphatically rejecting any cease‑fire and asserting he will stay in office

June 30 dips to 11%3%

Netanyahu holds his first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, emphatically rejecting any cease‑fire and asserting he will stay in office

Netanyahu holds his first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, focusing on regime‑change goals and refusing to discuss any resignation plans

June 30 dips to 14%3%

Netanyahu holds his first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, focusing on regime‑change goals and refusing to discuss any resignation plans

Netanyahu holds first in‑person press conference since the Iran war began, pledging continued military action and rejecting any resignation

June 30 drops to 21%5%

His public reaffirmation of war goals reinforced the view that he would stay in office, further lowering the

Netanyahu holds first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, reasserting his leadership – In a televised press conference he reiterated the war aims and dismissed any

June 30 drops to 17%6%

Netanyahu holds first in‑person news conference since the Iran war began, reasserting his leadership – In a televised press conference he reiterated the war aims and dismissed any talk of stepping down, which steadied the market and halted the decline .

Israel’s Attorney General summons Netanyahu to explain a police investigation into a classified‑document leak to the German newspaper Bild

June 30 dips to 17%4%

Israel’s Attorney General summons Netanyahu to explain a police investigation into a classified‑document leak to the German newspaper Bild

A security‑cabinet meeting is chaired by Foreign Minister Israel Katz rather than Netanyahu, fueling rumors of a possible leadership vacuum

June 30 dips to 14%4%

A security‑cabinet meeting is chaired by Foreign Minister Israel Katz rather than Netanyahu, fueling rumors of a possible leadership vacuum

Netanyahu’s public appearance goes silent, sparking online speculation about his whereabouts – After a video posted on his official account on 13 Mar was the last clear public

June 30 plunges to 23%15%

Netanyahu’s public appearance goes silent, sparking online speculation about his whereabouts – After a video posted on his official account on 13 Mar was the last clear public appearance, rumors of a hidden resignation plan surged, pushing the.

Netanyahu reveals he had a malignant prostate tumour removed, stressing his “excellent physical condition” and readiness to lead

June 30 plunges to 26%24%

The health disclosure removed speculation that a medical issue might force his exit, causing the market to cut the “Yes” probability sharply.

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

June 30 dips to 22%2%

Netanyahu declares Israel “stronger than ever” after the Iran war, bolstering his war‑time image – His confident speech reduced speculation of a resignation, nudging the

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting

June 30 plunges to 24%26%

Fact‑check shows viral protest video is from August 2025, not a fresh call for Netanyahu’s resignation – The debunking removed a perceived surge in public pressure, prompting traders to cut “Yes” odds sharply.

Speculation spreads that Netanyahu has been absent from public appearances for weeks, with his last identifiable video posted on March 1 2026

June 30 plunges to 21%29%

Speculation spreads that Netanyahu has been absent from public appearances for weeks, with his last identifiable video posted on March 1 2026

Speculation spreads that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s whereabouts are unknown after an Iranian claim of a missile strike on Jerusalem, prompting doubts about his ability to govern

June 30 plunges to 14%36%

Speculation spreads that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s whereabouts are unknown after an Iranian claim of a missile strike on Jerusalem, prompting doubts about his ability to govern

Netanyahu survives parliamentary vote of no‑confidence after coalition reshuffle – The survival temporarily restored his grip on power, lifting the “Yes” probability.

December 31 jumps to 50%11%

Netanyahu survives parliamentary vote of no‑confidence after coalition reshuffle – The survival temporarily restored his grip on power, lifting the “Yes” probability.

Netanyahu tells reporters he will not resign despite mounting legal pressure

June 30 drops to 38%12%

In a televised press conference, Netanyahu emphatically denied any intention to step down, trying to reassure coalition partners after the opening of his corruption trial .

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc threatens to leave coalition over military‑conscription exemptions – The loss of the six‑seat UTJ bloc was reported as the first

June 30 drops to 38%12%

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc threatens to leave coalition over military‑conscription exemptions – The loss of the six‑seat UTJ bloc was reported as the first major shock to Netanyahu’s majority, prompting traders to slash the probability of a resignation .

Israeli court extends detention of Netanyahu aide amid Qatargate probe – The expanding legal jeopardy for his inner circle further reduced expectations of a voluntary exit.

December 31 drops to 39%6%

Israeli court extends detention of Netanyahu aide amid Qatargate probe – The expanding legal jeopardy for his inner circle further reduced expectations of a voluntary exit.

Opposition intensifies calls for Netanyahu’s resignation after ceasefire with Iran

December 31 drops to 43%11%

Opposition leaders publicly criticized Netanyahu’s war strategy and demanded his resignation, but his refusal to step down led to a market decline in the likelihood of his exit.

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step

December 31 plunges to 45%17%

Netanyahu refuses to trade political future for presidential pardon in corruption case – His hard‑line stance against a pardon reinforced doubts about his willingness to step aside, sending the

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash,

December 31 jumps to 62%13%

Netanyahu asks embattled spokesman Ziv Agmon to stay on despite racist‑remark fallout – The move was interpreted as defiance that could provoke further coalition backlash, spurring a sudden

Market reacts to mixed signals as Netanyahu’s health disclosure removes resignation speculation

December 31 drops to 49%11%

Netanyahu revealed successful treatment for prostate cancer, alleviating health concerns that might force his exit, causing a sharp drop in the "Yes" probability.

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation,

December 31 drops to 49%8%

Over 200 hostage survivors issue ultimatum: launch state inquiry or Netanyahu must step down – The high‑profile demand from victims heightened the prospect of forced resignation, pushing the

Over 200 hostage survivors and families demand Netanyahu resign or authorize state inquiry

December 31 jumps to 60%5%

Public pressure mounted with a high-profile ultimatum from war victims’ families, increasing speculation about Netanyahu’s potential resignation and pushing the market’s "Yes" probability higher.

Former PM Naftali Bennett calls for Netanyahu’s resignation over Qatargate scandal

December 31 drops to 35%8%

Bennett accused Netanyahu of covering up a major corruption scandal involving Qatar, increasing political pressure but not immediately triggering resignation, reflected in a market dip.

Former PM Naftali Bennett calls Qatargate “most serious treason” and demands Netanyahu resign – Bennett’s public accusation added legal‑political pressure on the prime minister.

December 31 rises to 57%1%

Former PM Naftali Bennett calls Qatargate “most serious treason” and demands Netanyahu resign – Bennett’s public accusation added legal‑political pressure on the prime minister.

Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s key minister, resigns from government

December 31 drops to 56%8%

Dermer’s resignation amid post-ceasefire political shifts signaled weakening support within Netanyahu’s inner circle, leading to a decline in market confidence about Netanyahu’s tenure.

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a

December 31 drops to 56%7%

Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer resigns, citing “critical period” in Gaza war – Dermer’s exit signaled cracks in Netanyahu’s inner circle, nudging the market higher for a resignation.

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop

December 31 drops to 63%11%

Netanyahu announces cease‑fire talks with Lebanon and Hezbollah disarmament – The diplomatic move was seen as a concession that might calm coalition tensions, causing a rapid drop in exit odds.

Netanyahu’s government gains temporary support amid ceasefire talks, boosting political standing

December 31 surges to 62%15%

Netanyahu’s cabinet secured votes to pursue a Gaza ceasefire despite coalition strains, temporarily strengthening his position and causing a sharp rise in the market’s "Yes" odds.

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his

December 31 surges to 74%31%

Netanyahu survives assassination attempt and orders invasion of Lebanon, raising security concerns – The dramatic escalation suggested a possible crisis that could force his removal, driving the

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his

December 31 dips to 43%3%

Netanyahu keeps controversial spokesman Ziv Agmon in post after racist‑remark scandal – The decision angered Likud MPs and opposition figures, further eroding confidence in his leadership.

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the

December 31 drops to 46%9%

Fact‑check debunks “mass protests for Netanyahu’s resignation” video, showing it was from August 2025 – The correction removed a perceived surge of public pressure, pulling the “Yes”

Netanyahu announces replacement of embattled aide after racist remarks controversy

December 31 drops to 46%9%

Following backlash within Likud and opposition criticism, Netanyahu reversed his decision to keep his spokesman who made racist comments, signaling internal party tensions and reducing confidence in his leadership.

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about

December 31 dips to 55%4%

Ultra‑Orthodox United Torah Judaism party quits coalition over conscription dispute – The walk‑out stripped Netanyahu of his comfortable majority, sparking immediate doubts about his staying power.

United Torah Judaism quits Netanyahu’s coalition over military conscription dispute

December 31 dips to 55%4%

The ultra-Orthodox party UTJ announced its departure from Netanyahu’s government, weakening his parliamentary majority and raising doubts about his political stability, causing a drop in the market’s "Yes" probability.