Houthi forces consolidated control over Yemen’s Red Sea coast and Perim Island in September 2026, granting them the ability to threaten or deter shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb without issuing a formal closure. This has kept transits 40-60% below pre-2023 levels, with carriers adopting mixed routing—some resuming cautious passages via AIS-off transits while others divert around the Cape of Good Hope. Recent October rebounds in container traffic occurred alongside renewed Houthi escalations and a Saudi-backed Yemeni government counteroffensive near Dhubab, though independent verification of territorial shifts remains limited. Elevated ISPS security levels and insurance costs reflect persistent risk, while oil flows have partially rerouted to avoid related Hormuz disruptions. Trader assessments hinge on whether Houthi capabilities translate into sustained interdiction or de-escalation through negotiations or coalition pressure in the coming weeks.