The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 US-Israeli strikes confirmed a leadership change, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8 amid a constitutional process involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of strikes targeting Mojtaba, including unverified claims of his injury or death, have deepened uncertainty, with figures like parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly managing daily affairs. Traders monitor escalating regional tensions, potential further military actions, internal IRGC dynamics, and security concerns delaying formal transitions, as no permanent stability has emerged by late March.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$5,408,140 交易量
2026-03-31
3月31日
1%
4月30日
14%
5月31日
27%
6月30日
28%
12月31日
42%
$5,408,140 交易量
3月31日
$3,087,429 交易量
1%
4月30日
$1,370,323 交易量
14%
5月31日
$46,546 交易量
27%
6月30日
$21,250 交易量
28%
12月31日
$882,592 交易量
42%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 US-Israeli strikes confirmed a leadership change, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8 amid a constitutional process involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of strikes targeting Mojtaba, including unverified claims of his injury or death, have deepened uncertainty, with figures like parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly managing daily affairs. Traders monitor escalating regional tensions, potential further military actions, internal IRGC dynamics, and security concerns delaying formal transitions, as no permanent stability has emerged by late March.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
交易量
$5,408,140结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 US-Israeli strikes confirmed a leadership change, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8 amid a constitutional process involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of strikes targeting Mojtaba, including unverified claims of his injury or death, have deepened uncertainty, with figures like parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly managing daily affairs. Traders monitor escalating regional tensions, potential further military actions, internal IRGC dynamics, and security concerns delaying formal transitions, as no permanent stability has emerged by late March.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,408,140结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March 2026 US-Israeli strikes confirmed a leadership change, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8 amid a constitutional process involving an interim council. Subsequent reports of strikes targeting Mojtaba, including unverified claims of his injury or death, have deepened uncertainty, with figures like parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly managing daily affairs. Traders monitor escalating regional tensions, potential further military actions, internal IRGC dynamics, and security concerns delaying formal transitions, as no permanent stability has emerged by late March.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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