**KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have prioritized cabinet formation, revenue-sharing talks with Baghdad, and regional de-escalation over any independence push.** Ongoing internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, unresolved since the 2024 regional elections, have delayed governance and reinforced focus on stability within Iraq’s federal structure. The 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis has prompted repeated KRG statements rejecting involvement in cross-border conflicts or fighter movements, underscoring reluctance to trigger external backlash. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum—which produced no independence but instead territorial losses, sanctions from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and federal court rulings against secession—continues to shape caution. With no official announcements, legislative steps, or diplomatic signals toward a declaration by December 31, traders see the outcome as highly improbable given constitutional barriers, neighboring opposition, and the KRG’s current emphasis on partnership and consensus with the federal government.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$94,376 交易量
$94,376 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$94,376 交易量
$94,376 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have prioritized cabinet formation, revenue-sharing talks with Baghdad, and regional de-escalation over any independence push.** Ongoing internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, unresolved since the 2024 regional elections, have delayed governance and reinforced focus on stability within Iraq’s federal structure. The 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis has prompted repeated KRG statements rejecting involvement in cross-border conflicts or fighter movements, underscoring reluctance to trigger external backlash. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum—which produced no independence but instead territorial losses, sanctions from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and federal court rulings against secession—continues to shape caution. With no official announcements, legislative steps, or diplomatic signals toward a declaration by December 31, traders see the outcome as highly improbable given constitutional barriers, neighboring opposition, and the KRG’s current emphasis on partnership and consensus with the federal government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$94,376结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have prioritized cabinet formation, revenue-sharing talks with Baghdad, and regional de-escalation over any independence push.** Ongoing internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, unresolved since the 2024 regional elections, have delayed governance and reinforced focus on stability within Iraq’s federal structure. The 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis has prompted repeated KRG statements rejecting involvement in cross-border conflicts or fighter movements, underscoring reluctance to trigger external backlash. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum—which produced no independence but instead territorial losses, sanctions from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and federal court rulings against secession—continues to shape caution. With no official announcements, legislative steps, or diplomatic signals toward a declaration by December 31, traders see the outcome as highly improbable given constitutional barriers, neighboring opposition, and the KRG’s current emphasis on partnership and consensus with the federal government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$94,376结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**KRG leaders, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have prioritized cabinet formation, revenue-sharing talks with Baghdad, and regional de-escalation over any independence push.** Ongoing internal divisions between the KDP and PUK, unresolved since the 2024 regional elections, have delayed governance and reinforced focus on stability within Iraq’s federal structure. The 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis has prompted repeated KRG statements rejecting involvement in cross-border conflicts or fighter movements, underscoring reluctance to trigger external backlash. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum—which produced no independence but instead territorial losses, sanctions from Iraq, Turkey, and Iran, and federal court rulings against secession—continues to shape caution. With no official announcements, legislative steps, or diplomatic signals toward a declaration by December 31, traders see the outcome as highly improbable given constitutional barriers, neighboring opposition, and the KRG’s current emphasis on partnership and consensus with the federal government.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题