Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by December 31, driven by deepening economic cooperation and internal political challenges rather than secessionist momentum. A pivotal March 17 agreement between Baghdad and Erbil restarted Kirkuk crude oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan pipeline, resolving long-standing revenue disputes and signaling mutual reliance amid global energy demands. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's recent meetings with Iraq's Prime Minister-designate Ali Faleh al-Zaidi emphasized constitutional dialogue and federal cabinet formation, while Erbil's stalled post-2024 election government—deadlocked between KDP and PUK—diverts focus from risky independence bids. External pressures, including Iranian drone strikes on the region and impending U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September, further underscore barriers without evident shifts toward separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
$18,006 交易量
最新
$18,006 交易量
2026-12-31
是
最新
$18,006 交易量
最新
$18,006 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by December 31, driven by deepening economic cooperation and internal political challenges rather than secessionist momentum. A pivotal March 17 agreement between Baghdad and Erbil restarted Kirkuk crude oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan pipeline, resolving long-standing revenue disputes and signaling mutual reliance amid global energy demands. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's recent meetings with Iraq's Prime Minister-designate Ali Faleh al-Zaidi emphasized constitutional dialogue and federal cabinet formation, while Erbil's stalled post-2024 election government—deadlocked between KDP and PUK—diverts focus from risky independence bids. External pressures, including Iranian drone strikes on the region and impending U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September, further underscore barriers without evident shifts toward separation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$18,006结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by December 31, driven by deepening economic cooperation and internal political challenges rather than secessionist momentum. A pivotal March 17 agreement between Baghdad and Erbil restarted Kirkuk crude oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan pipeline, resolving long-standing revenue disputes and signaling mutual reliance amid global energy demands. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's recent meetings with Iraq's Prime Minister-designate Ali Faleh al-Zaidi emphasized constitutional dialogue and federal cabinet formation, while Erbil's stalled post-2024 election government—deadlocked between KDP and PUK—diverts focus from risky independence bids. External pressures, including Iranian drone strikes on the region and impending U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September, further underscore barriers without evident shifts toward separation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$18,106结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83% implied probability against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) declaring independence from Iraq by December 31, driven by deepening economic cooperation and internal political challenges rather than secessionist momentum. A pivotal March 17 agreement between Baghdad and Erbil restarted Kirkuk crude oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan pipeline, resolving long-standing revenue disputes and signaling mutual reliance amid global energy demands. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani's recent meetings with Iraq's Prime Minister-designate Ali Faleh al-Zaidi emphasized constitutional dialogue and federal cabinet formation, while Erbil's stalled post-2024 election government—deadlocked between KDP and PUK—diverts focus from risky independence bids. External pressures, including Iranian drone strikes on the region and impending U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September, further underscore barriers without evident shifts toward separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题