Geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling roughly 20-25% of global seaborne oil trade—at persistently low levels, with daily volumes often in the single digits to low teens versus pre-crisis averages near 60-100 vessels. This has elevated tanker freight rates, marine insurance premiums, and regional crude differentials while pressuring global energy benchmarks through reduced exports, particularly from Persian Gulf producers. Limited U.S. naval guidance and selective Iranian coordination produced modest upticks by late May, including days with 13-35 transits, yet volumes remained well below normalization thresholds amid ongoing risks and stalled de-escalation talks. Traders monitoring oil inventories, Brent-WTI spreads, and VLCC fixtures have priced in sustained supply-chain friction heading into June data releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,426,745 交易量
2026-05-31
20+
No
40+
No
60+
No
80+
No
$2,426,745 交易量
20+
$578,178 交易量
No
40+
$517,445 交易量
No
60+
$464,020 交易量
No
80+
$867,101 交易量
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling roughly 20-25% of global seaborne oil trade—at persistently low levels, with daily volumes often in the single digits to low teens versus pre-crisis averages near 60-100 vessels. This has elevated tanker freight rates, marine insurance premiums, and regional crude differentials while pressuring global energy benchmarks through reduced exports, particularly from Persian Gulf producers. Limited U.S. naval guidance and selective Iranian coordination produced modest upticks by late May, including days with 13-35 transits, yet volumes remained well below normalization thresholds amid ongoing risks and stalled de-escalation talks. Traders monitoring oil inventories, Brent-WTI spreads, and VLCC fixtures have priced in sustained supply-chain friction heading into June data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
交易量
$2,426,745结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling roughly 20-25% of global seaborne oil trade—at persistently low levels, with daily volumes often in the single digits to low teens versus pre-crisis averages near 60-100 vessels. This has elevated tanker freight rates, marine insurance premiums, and regional crude differentials while pressuring global energy benchmarks through reduced exports, particularly from Persian Gulf producers. Limited U.S. naval guidance and selective Iranian coordination produced modest upticks by late May, including days with 13-35 transits, yet volumes remained well below normalization thresholds amid ongoing risks and stalled de-escalation talks. Traders monitoring oil inventories, Brent-WTI spreads, and VLCC fixtures have priced in sustained supply-chain friction heading into June data releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$2,426,745结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling roughly 20-25% of global seaborne oil trade—at persistently low levels, with daily volumes often in the single digits to low teens versus pre-crisis averages near 60-100 vessels. This has elevated tanker freight rates, marine insurance premiums, and regional crude differentials while pressuring global energy benchmarks through reduced exports, particularly from Persian Gulf producers. Limited U.S. naval guidance and selective Iranian coordination produced modest upticks by late May, including days with 13-35 transits, yet volumes remained well below normalization thresholds amid ongoing risks and stalled de-escalation talks. Traders monitoring oil inventories, Brent-WTI spreads, and VLCC fixtures have priced in sustained supply-chain friction heading into June data releases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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