Amid stalled US-Iran negotiations following a fragile April 8 ceasefire in the ongoing 2026 conflict, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low implied probabilities—under 3%—to a permanent peace deal by mid-May, rising to around 21% by May 31 and 68% by year-end, reflecting optimism for eventual resolution but doubts over speed. President Trump recently rejected Iran's response to a US ceasefire proposal as "totally unacceptable," amid clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran reviews demands for nuclear curbs, sanctions relief, and proxy withdrawals like in Lebanon. Pakistan-mediated talks aim for a one-page memo to pause fighting, paving 30 days for a comprehensive accord, with key sticking points including verification and frozen assets. Upcoming responses and potential summits could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于US and Iran continue diplomatic engagement with cautious optimism
May 15 rises to 16%4%
While no definitive agreement was announced, ongoing talks and diplomatic efforts, including Pakistan’s mediation and China’s involvement, sustained moderate market optimism for a peace deal.
Continued stalemate and absence of definitive peace agreement confirmation
No new announcements or confirmations from either the US or Iran regarding a permanent peace deal were made, solidifying the low market probability for a deal by May 11.
Continued cautious optimism as talks remain active and no resumption of hostilities occurs
June 30 jumps to 51%6%
The market stabilizes with moderate confidence that a deal could be reached by June 30.
No breakthrough in peace talks as Iranian officials express uncertainty about deal imminence
May 11 dips to 4%4%
Iranian officials, including Abbas Araghchi, expressed doubt about an imminent deal, and no formal written agreement or clear public confirmation of a permanent peace deal was announced, leading to a further drop in market confidence.
Market dips amid uncertainty as Iran has not yet accepted all US demands, and key issues remain unresolved
June 30 drops to 45%9%
Lingering doubts about the completeness of the agreement caused a temporary
Reports of stalled negotiations and unresolved key demands reduce peace deal probability
May 15 drops to 12%8%
Sources indicated that despite progress, key US demands remained unaddressed and trust issues persisted, leading to a market decline in the likelihood of a permanent peace deal.
Fox News released a video showing “satellite images” of a suspected Iranian nuclear weapons facility, prompting analysts to view the development as a bargaining chip and nudging
December 31 rises to 75%1%
Fox News released a video showing “satellite images” of a suspected Iranian nuclear weapons facility, prompting analysts to view the development as a bargaining chip and nudging the
U.S. Central Command reported “defensive strikes” against what it called unprovoked Iranian attacks in the Hormuz Strait, reinforcing the view that hostilities were continuing and
May 13 dips to 7%2%
U.S. Central Command reported “defensive strikes” against what it called unprovoked Iranian attacks in the Hormuz Strait, reinforcing the view that hostilities were continuing and that a permanent agreement remained unlikely
Iran accuses US of breaching ceasefire;
May 31 drops to 34%5%
US awaits Iranian reply on peace proposals amid continued military skirmishes, sustaining uncertainty
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a
May 13 dips to 9%2%
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a possible short‑term cease‑fire rather than a lasting peace
Reports emerge of US and Iran negotiating details of a one-page memorandum to end hostilities
May 11 dips to 8%2%
News surfaced that the US and Iran were trying to finalize a one-page memorandum that would establish a framework for future talks on Iran’s nuclear program and end hostilities, signaling some diplomatic progress but no definitive agreement yet.
Continued fighting in Lebanon complicates US-Iran peace efforts
May 15 dips to 17%4%
Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, supported by Iran, complicated peace negotiations, as Tehran refused a wider peace deal excluding Lebanon, dampening market confidence.
U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets after Iran allegedly fired on U.S.
May 13 drops to 13%9%
warships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump warned of further action unless Tehran accepted a peace offer
Reports confirm that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are negotiating a one-page MOU with Iran to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
June 30 dips to 54%2%
Details of the MOU and ongoing talks sustained market optimism despite some mixed signals.
Iran reviews US peace proposal amid ongoing military exchanges in Strait of Hormuz
May 11 drops to 7%10%
Iran publicly stated it was reviewing a US peace proposal that would formally end the war but left unresolved key US demands such as suspension of Iran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, US military strikes followed Iranian attacks on US warships, increasing uncertainty about a lasting peace.
US Central Command conducts defensive strikes after Iranian attacks in Strait of Hormuz
May 11 rises to 10%3%
The US military responded to Iranian missile fire on US warships with strikes on Iranian military targets, while President Trump threatened harsher actions if Iran did not accept peace terms. This heightened military tension briefly raised hopes for a deal as pressure mounted on Iran.
US military destroys Iranian small boats and missiles after attacks, while US Secretary of State Rubio states Washington awaits Iran’s response to interim ceasefire proposals,
May 31 surges to 39%21%
US military destroys Iranian small boats and missiles after attacks, while US Secretary of State Rubio states Washington awaits Iran’s response to interim ceasefire proposals, reflecting ongoing volatility
US and Iran exchange fire testing ceasefire but both sides claim situation normalized
May 15 jumps to 21%6%
Despite an exchange of fire, both governments stated the ceasefire remained intact, creating mixed signals that caused a sharp market swing reflecting uncertainty.
The New York Times reported U.S.
December 31 rises to 74%3%
forces exchanged fire with Iranian targets after Iran allegedly fired on U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting tensions and pulling the
Iran announced it was reviewing a U.S.
May 13 dips to 11%2%
peace proposal that would formally end the war but left key U.S. demands (nuclear suspension, Hormuz reopening) unresolved, dampening hopes for an immediate permanent deal
Axios (cited by Reuters) reported the White House believed it was “closing in” on a one‑page memorandum of understanding with Iran that would end the war and set a framework for
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
Axios (cited by Reuters) reported the White House believed it was “closing in” on a one‑page memorandum of understanding with Iran that would end the war and set a framework for detailed nuclear talks
Iran reviews US peace proposal amid paused naval mission to reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 15 jumps to 15%12%
Iran publicly stated it was reviewing a US peace proposal that could formally end the war, while President Trump paused a naval mission to reopen the strait, signaling diplomatic progress and boosting market optimism.
Reuters quoted Iranian officials saying Tehran was reviewing the U.S.
December 31 drops to 71%7%
peace proposal, noting the deal would “formally end the war” while key U.S. demands remained
US officials reveal progress toward a one-page memo to end the war, but Trump backs off a new operation in the Strait of Hormuz to preserve fragile ceasefire
May 31 rises to 18%4%
US officials reveal progress toward a one-page memo to end the war, but Trump backs off a new operation in the Strait of Hormuz to preserve fragile ceasefire
Chinese Foreign Minister meets Iranian Foreign Minister to support peace efforts
May 15 jumps to 15%10%
China’s active role in promoting peace and a post-war regional framework was highlighted by a meeting between Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers, reinforcing diplomatic momentum.
Iran publicly states it is reviewing a US peace proposal involving a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war and start detailed negotiations
June 30 surges to 56%23%
The announcement of a concrete peace proposal under active review significantly increased the perceived chance of a permanent deal.
President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause to the “Project Freedom” naval operation aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, citing “progress in peace talks” with Iran
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
President Donald Trump announced a temporary pause to the “Project Freedom” naval operation aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, citing “progress in peace talks” with Iran
Trump announces the US will help free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz but does not commit to a permanent peace framework, leaving the market at its lowest level
May 31 drops to 14%5%
Trump announces the US will help free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz but does not commit to a permanent peace framework, leaving the market at its lowest level
Trump announces a further extension of the cease‑fire only until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing pressure on Tehran and pushing the market to its lowest level
May 31 plunges to 14%19%
Trump announces a further extension of the cease‑fire only until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing pressure on Tehran and pushing the market to its lowest level
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest peace offer;
May 31 dips to 19%3%
the US side signals likely rejection, further eroding hopes for a permanent deal
U.S. officials say “very positive discussions” are ongoing but no definitive agreement has been reached, providing a modest rebound after the May 1 dip
June 30 jumps to 39%8%
U.S. officials say “very positive discussions” are ongoing but no definitive agreement has been reached, providing a modest rebound after the May 1 dip
Iran says it has received a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 39%8%
response to its latest peace offer, but no public acceptance is given, keeping market sentiment low
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest offer;
May 31 dips to 33%1%
US officials indicate the proposal will likely be rejected
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 34%1%
Trump publicly says he is “not satisfied,” dampening hopes for a permanent deal
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 22%2%
Trump publicly declares he is “not satisfied” and doubts the offer
Trump tweets that he will likely reject Iran’s latest offer, stating Tehran “has not paid a big enough
June 30 plunges to 31%16%
Trump tweets that he will likely reject Iran’s latest offer, stating Tehran “has not paid a big enough
Iran and US hold high-level negotiations in Islamabad but harden positions
May 15 rises to 9%1%
Despite an all-night negotiation session involving US Vice President Vance and Iranian officials, both sides hardened their stances, tempering hopes for a permanent peace deal.
President Trump publicly states he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest offer and warns the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 31%22%
may resume attacks, driving the
President Trump pauses a naval operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in peace talks
June 30 jumps to 40%5%
This pause was interpreted as a positive sign that the ceasefire and negotiations were holding, boosting market confidence.
No new definitive agreement is announced;
April 30 dips to 0%1%
analysts note the stalemate and the imminent cease‑fire expiry, driving the
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent
May 15 rises to 8%1%
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent cease‑fire was unlikely
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline,
May 15 dips to 8%2%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline, pushing the Yes probability down to a low‑single‑digit level
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could
May 15 dips to 7%3%
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could be ratified
CNN notes mediators expect a revised Iranian peace proposal “within days”;
June 30 rises to 44%3%
the possibility of a new offer nudges the odds slightly higher
President Trump announced that U.S.
May 15 dips to 10%2%
negotiators would travel to Pakistan for peace talks, but the same day Vice‑President JD Vance’s planned Islamabad trip was called off, underscoring a sudden diplomatic retreat and further dampening market optimism
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran while simultaneously warning Tehran to “get smart soon,” reflecting mixed signals
May 31 dips to 28%2%
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran while simultaneously warning Tehran to “get smart soon,” reflecting mixed signals
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran and promises to free stranded ships, briefly lifting market pessimism
May 31 drops to 33%6%
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran and promises to free stranded ships, briefly lifting market pessimism
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting
May 15 dips to 10%2%
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting agreement
Trump scrubs a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, signaling a hardening U.S.
April 30 drops to 1%6%
stance and further diminishing prospects for a permanent deal
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
June 30 drops to 41%6%
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a
May 15 dips to 14%1%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a diplomatic path but had not secured a deal
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope
June 30 drops to 47%8%
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope alive
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
June 30 jumps to 55%10%
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
Iran, via Pakistani mediators, submits a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while postponing nuclear talks;
April 30 plunges to 7%34%
the U.S. rejects it as incomplete, sending the market sharply lower
US and Iran maintain fragile ceasefire amid ongoing talks mediated by Pakistan
May 15 dips to 12%3%
The two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 was extended with Pakistan mediating, but neither side removed blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, causing uncertainty about a lasting peace deal.
U.S. officials discuss the new Iranian proposal and label it “not enough,” while Trump says he will review it, leading to a further decline
June 30 rises to 47%1%
U.S. officials discuss the new Iranian proposal and label it “not enough,” while Trump says he will review it, leading to a further decline
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was
May 15 dips to 12%2%
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was collapsing and that a permanent peace pact was unlikely
President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but rejected its “no‑nuclear‑talks” terms, signalling U.S.
May 15 dips to 12%3%
reluctance to accept a permanent deal
Trump discusses the Iranian proposal with top security aides and later cancels a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, indicating a stall in talks and pushing the market down
June 30 jumps to 53%7%
Trump discusses the Iranian proposal with top security aides and later cancels a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, indicating a stall in talks and pushing the market down
Reports emerge of ongoing negotiations and potential compromises, including discussions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 jumps to 50%8%
Renewed optimism about progress in talks led to a partial recovery in
Iran delivers a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators, but Trump signals he will likely reject it, causing the
June 30 drops to 46%11%
Iran delivers a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators, but Trump signals he will likely reject it, causing the
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
June 30 plunges to 45%19%
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
Market reacts to reports of stalled talks and Iran’s rejection of some US proposals, raising doubts about a near-term deal
June 30 plunges to 42%15%
Negative news on negotiation progress caused a significant drop in perceived likelihood of a deal.
Iran’s IRGC captures the MSC Francesca in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring continued hostilities despite the cease‑fire and prompting a market pullback
June 30 dips to 57%4%
Iran’s IRGC captures the MSC Francesca in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring continued hostilities despite the cease‑fire and prompting a market pullback
US officials report “some progress” from Iran but note that key Iranian leaders (e.g., speaker Ghalibaf) will not attend the Islamabad talks, heightening uncertainty
May 31 rises to 34%1%
US officials report “some progress” from Iran but note that key Iranian leaders (e.g., speaker Ghalibaf) will not attend the Islamabad talks, heightening uncertainty
Iran submits a 14‑point proposal via Pakistani mediators, but the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 46%19%
says it does not address nuclear issues, causing the market to retreat
US officials report interception of 13‑23 Iranian‑bound tankers despite the blockade, signaling continued hostilities
May 31 drops to 39%5%
US officials report interception of 13‑23 Iranian‑bound tankers despite the blockade, signaling continued hostilities
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
June 30 jumps to 64%6%
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
Market reacts to reports of stalled negotiations and Iran’s accusations of US ceasefire breaches, lowering confidence in a permanent deal
May 31 drops to 28%13%
Market reacts to reports of stalled negotiations and Iran’s accusations of US ceasefire breaches, lowering confidence in a permanent deal
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal
June 30 plunges to 54%28%
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal document
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and insists any cease‑fire must include Lebanon, signalling a stalemate
May 31 drops to 39%5%
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and insists any cease‑fire must include Lebanon, signalling a stalemate
US officials announce President Trump gave Iran a 3-5 day deadline to engage in negotiations before resuming attacks
June 30 drops to 57%7%
The deadline introduced uncertainty about the ceasefire’s durability, leading to a
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and demands inclusion of Lebanon, causing a drop in optimism
May 31 plunges to 44%18%
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and demands inclusion of Lebanon, causing a drop in optimism
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
June 30 drops to 58%8%
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give Iran more time to present a unified proposal, but stresses the U.S.
June 30 dips to 61%4%
blockade will remain, tempering optimism
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give talks more time, but notes Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, creating mixed signals and a modest pull‑back
June 30 dips to 65%3%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give talks more time, but notes Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, creating mixed signals and a modest pull‑back
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
April 30 plunges to 41%22%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
Trump indefinitely extends the ceasefire at Pakistan’s request to allow continued talks, acknowledging Iranian government fractures and ongoing negotiation challenges
May 31 drops to 41%13%
Trump indefinitely extends the ceasefire at Pakistan’s request to allow continued talks, acknowledging Iranian government fractures and ongoing negotiation challenges
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US has “seen some progress” from Iran;
May 31 dips to 62%2%
however, Trump extends the naval blockade, prompting Iran to re‑impose restrictions
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US will extend the cease‑fire until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing the deadline pressure
May 31 dips to 62%2%
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US will extend the cease‑fire until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing the deadline pressure
Trump announces that Iran will “completely open” the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the cease‑fire is holding and a peace framework is near, pushing the market to its peak
June 30 drops to 68%14%
Trump announces that Iran will “completely open” the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the cease‑fire is holding and a peace framework is near, pushing the market to its peak
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April
June 30 dips to 65%3%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April high
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
April 30 surges to 63%30%
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to claim “very positive discussions” with Tehran
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to claim “very positive discussions” with Tehran
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz;
May 31 rises to 64%1%
Trump declares “peace talks are all but complete”
President Trump publicly backs the cease‑fire and says the U.S.
June 30 jumps to 82%14%
will hold fire “until Iran presents a unified proposal,” raising expectations of a lasting deal
US announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce
May 31 jumps to 63%6%
US announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” once a peace deal is signed, boosting confidence that negotiations are nearing a permanent settlement
June 30 drops to 68%14%
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” once a peace deal is signed, boosting confidence that negotiations are nearing a permanent settlement
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr
June 30 jumps to 82%11%
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr 13 → Apr 15)
Trump announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the truce, but the US blockade continues
May 31 jumps to 63%6%
Trump announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the truce, but the US blockade continues
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
June 30 jumps to 77%8%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
President Trump orders a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, raising fears the cease‑fire will collapse
June 30 dips to 71%2%
President Trump orders a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, raising fears the cease‑fire will collapse
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
April 30 drops to 33%6%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
June 30 surges to 69%28%
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
President Trump imposes a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, targeting ships heading to or from Iran
May 31 surges to 57%30%
President Trump imposes a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, targeting ships heading to or from Iran
Trump announces a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, escalating tensions despite ceasefire, raising doubts about lasting peace
May 31 drops to 54%8%
Trump announces a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, escalating tensions despite ceasefire, raising doubts about lasting peace
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
April 30 plunges to 39%22%
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
Vance departs Islamabad with no agreement reached;
May 31 drops to 62%7%
Iranian officials cite unresolved major issues and lack of trust, dampening optimism
US Vice‑President JD Vance returns from Islamabad saying talks produced no agreement;
May 31 surges to 57%30%
Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports
US Vice‑President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for the first round of peace talks
May 31 drops to 27%10%
US Vice‑President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for the first round of peace talks
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff arrive in Islamabad for high‑level peace talks, raising expectations of a definitive agreement
June 30 jumps to 82%9%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff arrive in Islamabad for high‑level peace talks, raising expectations of a definitive agreement
US Vice President JD Vance and envoys arrive in Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials
June 30 drops to 65%8%
The arrival of high-level US officials for direct talks signaled serious negotiation efforts, initially boosting confidence but followed by some market profit-taking.
US Vice President JD Vance and envoys arrive in Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials, signaling serious negotiation efforts
May 31 surges to 61%22%
US Vice President JD Vance and envoys arrive in Islamabad for peace talks with Iranian officials, signaling serious negotiation efforts
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
April 30 surges to 61%30%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for high‑level talks;
June 30 jumps to 73%6%
early reports suggest gaps remain, prompting market skepticism
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the delegation leaves without an agreement, dampening hopes for a quick settlement
June 30 drops to 68%5%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the delegation leaves without an agreement, dampening hopes for a quick settlement
Pakistan invites both delegations to Islamabad for “conclusive” talks;
May 31 drops to 27%10%
Trump hails the move as “very close to stitching a deal”
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, with a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 37%7%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, with a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
April 30 jumps to 31%12%
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire mediated by Pakistan, with the US tying the pause to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 37%7%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire mediated by Pakistan, with the US tying the pause to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran announce a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, with Iran agreeing to a 10-point peace plan including reopening the Strait of Hormuz;
May 31 drops to 39%5%
Trump states progress toward a long-term peace agreement
United States and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, with Iran proposing a 10-point peace plan including security guarantees and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 surges to 71%30%
This ceasefire marked a significant de-escalation and raised hopes for a permanent peace deal, causing a sharp
U.S. and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire and say they will use the pause to negotiate a lasting peace deal
June 30 surges to 67%26%
U.S. and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire and say they will use the pause to negotiate a lasting peace deal
Iran and the United States announce a two‑week cease‑fire and Iran says the U.S.
June 30 surges to 73%32%
has accepted its 10‑point peace plan, sparking optimism that a permanent deal could follow
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, with Pakistan mediating the first “Islamabad talks” and both sides pledging to work toward a lasting peace deal
June 30 surges to 73%32%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, with Pakistan mediating the first “Islamabad talks” and both sides pledging to work toward a lasting peace deal
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题