Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, anchored by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 threat assessment stating Beijing lacks fixed timelines or plans for a 2027 assault, prioritizing economic development and short-of-war coercion amid PLA readiness shortfalls. No major military escalations have occurred in the past 30 days, with the latest notable activity being the Liaoning carrier's routine Taiwan Strait transit on April 20 and normalized patrols signaling pressure without invasion indicators. Bolstered U.S. deterrence via arms sales announcements ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, Taiwan's $25 billion defense increase, and China's domestic economic strains reinforce this positioning, though sudden blockades, independence declarations, or U.S. distractions could shift odds before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$23,356,221 交易量
$23,356,221 交易量
是
$23,356,221 交易量
$23,356,221 交易量
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus implies a 92.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, anchored by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 threat assessment stating Beijing lacks fixed timelines or plans for a 2027 assault, prioritizing economic development and short-of-war coercion amid PLA readiness shortfalls. No major military escalations have occurred in the past 30 days, with the latest notable activity being the Liaoning carrier's routine Taiwan Strait transit on April 20 and normalized patrols signaling pressure without invasion indicators. Bolstered U.S. deterrence via arms sales announcements ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, Taiwan's $25 billion defense increase, and China's domestic economic strains reinforce this positioning, though sudden blockades, independence declarations, or U.S. distractions could shift odds before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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