Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted extensive damage on Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites and weapons-related compounds such as Minzadayi, which was hit in March 2026. Satellite imagery through October 2026 shows ongoing repairs and vehicle activity at damaged locations like Minzadayi, Pickaxe Mountain, and Taleghan 2, yet the program remains severely constrained with many centrifuges destroyed and limited operational capacity. Iranian officials continue to deny weapons ambitions while facing international scrutiny over enriched uranium stockpiles and IAEA access. This backdrop of recent setbacks underpins the 96.3% trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from accelerated reconstruction or policy changes amid ongoing diplomacy, though verification challenges persist.