US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months, despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear sites that caused only limited damage. IAEA reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but note ongoing verification challenges and no evidence of weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons persists amid sanctions and diplomatic pressures, with no recent official announcements signaling a test. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, intact IAEA monitoring, and de-escalation signals post-conflict, though sudden leadership shifts or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$192,378 交易量
$192,378 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$192,378 交易量
$192,378 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months, despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear sites that caused only limited damage. IAEA reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but note ongoing verification challenges and no evidence of weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons persists amid sanctions and diplomatic pressures, with no recent official announcements signaling a test. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, intact IAEA monitoring, and de-escalation signals post-conflict, though sudden leadership shifts or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$192,378结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months, despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear sites that caused only limited damage. IAEA reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but note ongoing verification challenges and no evidence of weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons persists amid sanctions and diplomatic pressures, with no recent official announcements signaling a test. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, intact IAEA monitoring, and de-escalation signals post-conflict, though sudden leadership shifts or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,378结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains unchanged at 9-12 months, despite months of US-Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear sites that caused only limited damage. IAEA reports confirm Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but note ongoing verification challenges and no evidence of weaponization or test preparations. Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons persists amid sanctions and diplomatic pressures, with no recent official announcements signaling a test. Traders' 91% "No" consensus reflects these technical barriers, intact IAEA monitoring, and de-escalation signals post-conflict, though sudden leadership shifts or covert advances could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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