Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 have degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving a stockpile of highly enriched uranium in place. U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if leaders authorized weaponization, a timeline largely unchanged despite the campaigns. Director of National Intelligence statements and IAEA reports confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment in recent months and lacks verified progress on a full weapons design or detonation system. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, focused on sanctions relief and program restrictions, further reduce incentives for a rapid breakout. These verified setbacks and stalled enrichment activities underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$193,469 交易量
$193,469 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$193,469 交易量
$193,469 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 have degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving a stockpile of highly enriched uranium in place. U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if leaders authorized weaponization, a timeline largely unchanged despite the campaigns. Director of National Intelligence statements and IAEA reports confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment in recent months and lacks verified progress on a full weapons design or detonation system. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, focused on sanctions relief and program restrictions, further reduce incentives for a rapid breakout. These verified setbacks and stalled enrichment activities underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$193,469结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 have degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving a stockpile of highly enriched uranium in place. U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if leaders authorized weaponization, a timeline largely unchanged despite the campaigns. Director of National Intelligence statements and IAEA reports confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment in recent months and lacks verified progress on a full weapons design or detonation system. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, focused on sanctions relief and program restrictions, further reduce incentives for a rapid breakout. These verified setbacks and stalled enrichment activities underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$193,469结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and February 2026 have degraded enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving a stockpile of highly enriched uranium in place. U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that Iran would still require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if leaders authorized weaponization, a timeline largely unchanged despite the campaigns. Director of National Intelligence statements and IAEA reports confirm Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment in recent months and lacks verified progress on a full weapons design or detonation system. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, focused on sanctions relief and program restrictions, further reduce incentives for a rapid breakout. These verified setbacks and stalled enrichment activities underpin trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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