UAE-Qatar diplomatic ties, restored in 2021 under the Al-Ula framework after the 2017-2021 Gulf crisis, have remained stable with reopened embassies and active bilateral economic engagement. Both states participate in GCC summits and joint defense mechanisms, including recent coordinated statements on regional security threats. No official actions, legislative moves, or public disputes since early 2025 have signaled intent to sever relations, and structural incentives for continued cooperation in trade, energy, and Gulf coordination persist through 2026. Traders price the "No" outcome at 93.5% as a reflection of this sustained normalization, with any rupture requiring a major unforecast shift in bilateral or GCC dynamics.