Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% for France, the United Kingdom, or Germany launching strikes on Iran by June 30, reflecting E3 restraint amid heightened Middle East tensions. Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies in late February and early March, E3 leaders issued joint statements condemning the actions as indiscriminate, vowing defensive measures and coordination with the US and Israel to degrade Iran's capabilities—yet emphasized they did not join US-Israeli strikes and prioritized diplomacy. No E3 offensive military actions have occurred since, with the UK approving limited US base access for defensive strikes (March 20) and deployments focused on protection rather than attack. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, including recent envoy optimism for meetings this week, signal de-escalation, lowering direct E3 involvement risks absent major provocation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$522,219 交易量
$522,219 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$522,219 交易量
$522,219 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% for France, the United Kingdom, or Germany launching strikes on Iran by June 30, reflecting E3 restraint amid heightened Middle East tensions. Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies in late February and early March, E3 leaders issued joint statements condemning the actions as indiscriminate, vowing defensive measures and coordination with the US and Israel to degrade Iran's capabilities—yet emphasized they did not join US-Israeli strikes and prioritized diplomacy. No E3 offensive military actions have occurred since, with the UK approving limited US base access for defensive strikes (March 20) and deployments focused on protection rather than attack. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, including recent envoy optimism for meetings this week, signal de-escalation, lowering direct E3 involvement risks absent major provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
交易量
$522,219结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% for France, the United Kingdom, or Germany launching strikes on Iran by June 30, reflecting E3 restraint amid heightened Middle East tensions. Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies in late February and early March, E3 leaders issued joint statements condemning the actions as indiscriminate, vowing defensive measures and coordination with the US and Israel to degrade Iran's capabilities—yet emphasized they did not join US-Israeli strikes and prioritized diplomacy. No E3 offensive military actions have occurred since, with the UK approving limited US base access for defensive strikes (March 20) and deployments focused on protection rather than attack. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, including recent envoy optimism for meetings this week, signal de-escalation, lowering direct E3 involvement risks absent major provocation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$522,219结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% for France, the United Kingdom, or Germany launching strikes on Iran by June 30, reflecting E3 restraint amid heightened Middle East tensions. Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies in late February and early March, E3 leaders issued joint statements condemning the actions as indiscriminate, vowing defensive measures and coordination with the US and Israel to degrade Iran's capabilities—yet emphasized they did not join US-Israeli strikes and prioritized diplomacy. No E3 offensive military actions have occurred since, with the UK approving limited US base access for defensive strikes (March 20) and deployments focused on protection rather than attack. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, including recent envoy optimism for meetings this week, signal de-escalation, lowering direct E3 involvement risks absent major provocation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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