Since late February 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes initiated the ongoing Iran conflict, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—the E3 group—have issued joint statements condemning Iranian attacks while committing only to defensive military actions, such as deploying ships, planes, and intercepting drones in the Gulf region. No offensive strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, with recent signals including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressing doubts over broader war aims on March 27 and European leaders emphasizing restraint amid U.S. pressure for Strait of Hormuz coalitions. This limited posture, prioritizing diplomacy and regional stability over escalation, underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of no strikes by June 30, though a direct Iranian provocation against European interests could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$523,850 交易量
$523,850 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$523,850 交易量
$523,850 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Since late February 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes initiated the ongoing Iran conflict, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—the E3 group—have issued joint statements condemning Iranian attacks while committing only to defensive military actions, such as deploying ships, planes, and intercepting drones in the Gulf region. No offensive strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, with recent signals including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressing doubts over broader war aims on March 27 and European leaders emphasizing restraint amid U.S. pressure for Strait of Hormuz coalitions. This limited posture, prioritizing diplomacy and regional stability over escalation, underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of no strikes by June 30, though a direct Iranian provocation against European interests could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
交易量
$523,850结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Since late February 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes initiated the ongoing Iran conflict, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—the E3 group—have issued joint statements condemning Iranian attacks while committing only to defensive military actions, such as deploying ships, planes, and intercepting drones in the Gulf region. No offensive strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, with recent signals including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressing doubts over broader war aims on March 27 and European leaders emphasizing restraint amid U.S. pressure for Strait of Hormuz coalitions. This limited posture, prioritizing diplomacy and regional stability over escalation, underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of no strikes by June 30, though a direct Iranian provocation against European interests could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$523,870结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Since late February 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes initiated the ongoing Iran conflict, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—the E3 group—have issued joint statements condemning Iranian attacks while committing only to defensive military actions, such as deploying ships, planes, and intercepting drones in the Gulf region. No offensive strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, with recent signals including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressing doubts over broader war aims on March 27 and European leaders emphasizing restraint amid U.S. pressure for Strait of Hormuz coalitions. This limited posture, prioritizing diplomacy and regional stability over escalation, underpins trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of no strikes by June 30, though a direct Iranian provocation against European interests could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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