With the March 31 deadline approaching, Polymarket traders price a 99.1% probability of "No" as France, the UK, and Germany have taken no offensive military action against Iran despite early March joint E3 statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and vowing proportionate defensive measures. Following US and Israeli strikes that sparked Iranian retaliation, these nations deployed naval and air assets, granted the UK bases for US operations, and urged diplomacy via G7 channels, but avoided direct airstrikes amid calls for restraint and de-escalation. Absent last-minute escalation—like a major Iranian strike on European interests—logistical hurdles and policy focus on negotiations preclude action before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$4,796,063 交易量
$4,796,063 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$4,796,063 交易量
$4,796,063 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31 deadline approaching, Polymarket traders price a 99.1% probability of "No" as France, the UK, and Germany have taken no offensive military action against Iran despite early March joint E3 statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and vowing proportionate defensive measures. Following US and Israeli strikes that sparked Iranian retaliation, these nations deployed naval and air assets, granted the UK bases for US operations, and urged diplomacy via G7 channels, but avoided direct airstrikes amid calls for restraint and de-escalation. Absent last-minute escalation—like a major Iranian strike on European interests—logistical hurdles and policy focus on negotiations preclude action before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
交易量
$4,796,063结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31 deadline approaching, Polymarket traders price a 99.1% probability of "No" as France, the UK, and Germany have taken no offensive military action against Iran despite early March joint E3 statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and vowing proportionate defensive measures. Following US and Israeli strikes that sparked Iranian retaliation, these nations deployed naval and air assets, granted the UK bases for US operations, and urged diplomacy via G7 channels, but avoided direct airstrikes amid calls for restraint and de-escalation. Absent last-minute escalation—like a major Iranian strike on European interests—logistical hurdles and policy focus on negotiations preclude action before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$4,796,063结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With the March 31 deadline approaching, Polymarket traders price a 99.1% probability of "No" as France, the UK, and Germany have taken no offensive military action against Iran despite early March joint E3 statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and vowing proportionate defensive measures. Following US and Israeli strikes that sparked Iranian retaliation, these nations deployed naval and air assets, granted the UK bases for US operations, and urged diplomacy via G7 channels, but avoided direct airstrikes amid calls for restraint and de-escalation. Absent last-minute escalation—like a major Iranian strike on European interests—logistical hurdles and policy focus on negotiations preclude action before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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