With the March 31 deadline passed and no verified military action—such as airstrikes or offensive operations—by France, the UK, or Germany against Iran, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus on "No," pricing it at 100%. Early March joint statements from the E3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies, vowing defensive measures to protect Gulf interests, yet leaders like Macron emphasized de-escalation and criticized US-Israeli strikes as outside international law. Throughout the month, Europe prioritized diplomacy, sanctions, and limited logistical support amid domestic pressures and risks to energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding direct escalation. Realistic shifts would require confirmed late-breaking reports of classified actions, though none have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$4,954,917 交易量
$4,954,917 交易量
2026-03-31
是
$4,954,917 交易量
$4,954,917 交易量
2026-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31 deadline passed and no verified military action—such as airstrikes or offensive operations—by France, the UK, or Germany against Iran, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus on "No," pricing it at 100%. Early March joint statements from the E3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies, vowing defensive measures to protect Gulf interests, yet leaders like Macron emphasized de-escalation and criticized US-Israeli strikes as outside international law. Throughout the month, Europe prioritized diplomacy, sanctions, and limited logistical support amid domestic pressures and risks to energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding direct escalation. Realistic shifts would require confirmed late-breaking reports of classified actions, though none have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
交易量
$4,954,917结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31 deadline passed and no verified military action—such as airstrikes or offensive operations—by France, the UK, or Germany against Iran, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus on "No," pricing it at 100%. Early March joint statements from the E3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies, vowing defensive measures to protect Gulf interests, yet leaders like Macron emphasized de-escalation and criticized US-Israeli strikes as outside international law. Throughout the month, Europe prioritized diplomacy, sanctions, and limited logistical support amid domestic pressures and risks to energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding direct escalation. Realistic shifts would require confirmed late-breaking reports of classified actions, though none have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$4,954,917结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
With the March 31 deadline passed and no verified military action—such as airstrikes or offensive operations—by France, the UK, or Germany against Iran, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus on "No," pricing it at 100%. Early March joint statements from the E3 (France, Germany, UK) condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies, vowing defensive measures to protect Gulf interests, yet leaders like Macron emphasized de-escalation and criticized US-Israeli strikes as outside international law. Throughout the month, Europe prioritized diplomacy, sanctions, and limited logistical support amid domestic pressures and risks to energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding direct escalation. Realistic shifts would require confirmed late-breaking reports of classified actions, though none have emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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