Amid fragile ceasefires following intense US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional Iranian military action by April 30, anchored by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 17 warning of naval retaliation against US and Israeli forces only if provocations continue, such as strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Recent diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 18 briefing on potential peace talks resumption and Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid threats to Gulf shipping. Degraded Iranian missile capabilities from prior airstrikes reduce escalation risks, though unresolved tensions over energy sites and proxy conflicts could prompt proxy attacks or direct barrages on Israel or US assets in the region.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$4,347,392 交易量
2026-04-30
巴林
18%
卡塔尔
15%
约旦
22%
黎巴嫩
4%
阿曼
4%
阿富汗
3%
塞浦路斯
3%
叙利亚
2%
土耳其
2%
也门
2%
阿塞拜疆
1%
巴基斯坦
1%
意大利
1%
波兰
1%
亚美尼亚
1%
法国
1%
乌克兰
1%
格鲁吉亚
1%
英国
1%
德国
1%
印度
1%
匈牙利
1%
西班牙
<1%
$4,347,392 交易量
巴林
$219,863 交易量
18%
卡塔尔
$92,056 交易量
15%
约旦
$13,787 交易量
22%
黎巴嫩
$45,297 交易量
4%
阿曼
$69,320 交易量
4%
阿富汗
$1,891 交易量
3%
塞浦路斯
$19,303 交易量
3%
叙利亚
$18,691 交易量
2%
土耳其
$22,053 交易量
2%
也门
$10,082 交易量
2%
阿塞拜疆
$44,190 交易量
1%
巴基斯坦
$24,703 交易量
1%
意大利
$1,432 交易量
1%
波兰
$37,567 交易量
1%
亚美尼亚
$4,097 交易量
1%
法国
$42,876 交易量
1%
乌克兰
$14,864 交易量
1%
格鲁吉亚
$9,059 交易量
1%
英国
$25,777 交易量
1%
德国
$19,599 交易量
1%
印度
$20,932 交易量
1%
匈牙利
$15,181 交易量
1%
西班牙
$8,156 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid fragile ceasefires following intense US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional Iranian military action by April 30, anchored by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 17 warning of naval retaliation against US and Israeli forces only if provocations continue, such as strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Recent diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 18 briefing on potential peace talks resumption and Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid threats to Gulf shipping. Degraded Iranian missile capabilities from prior airstrikes reduce escalation risks, though unresolved tensions over energy sites and proxy conflicts could prompt proxy attacks or direct barrages on Israel or US assets in the region.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$4,347,392结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid fragile ceasefires following intense US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional Iranian military action by April 30, anchored by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 17 warning of naval retaliation against US and Israeli forces only if provocations continue, such as strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Recent diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 18 briefing on potential peace talks resumption and Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid threats to Gulf shipping. Degraded Iranian missile capabilities from prior airstrikes reduce escalation risks, though unresolved tensions over energy sites and proxy conflicts could prompt proxy attacks or direct barrages on Israel or US assets in the region.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$4,347,392结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid fragile ceasefires following intense US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional Iranian military action by April 30, anchored by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 17 warning of naval retaliation against US and Israeli forces only if provocations continue, such as strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Recent diplomatic signals include President Trump's April 18 briefing on potential peace talks resumption and Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic amid threats to Gulf shipping. Degraded Iranian missile capabilities from prior airstrikes reduce escalation risks, though unresolved tensions over energy sites and proxy conflicts could prompt proxy attacks or direct barrages on Israel or US assets in the region.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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