In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$5,846,810 交易量
2026-04-30
以色列
是
约旦
是
沙特阿拉伯
是
巴林
是
阿联酋
是
科威特
是
土耳其
否
塞浦路斯
否
卡塔尔
否
伊拉克
是
阿富汗
否
巴基斯坦
否
也门
否
阿曼
否
叙利亚
否
黎巴嫩
否
印度
否
西班牙
否
法国
否
德国
否
波兰
否
意大利
否
匈牙利
否
乌克兰
否
阿塞拜疆
否
亚美尼亚
否
格鲁吉亚
否
英国
否
沙特阿拉伯
是
约旦
否
巴林
否
科威特
是
$5,846,810 交易量
以色列
$16,598 交易量
是
约旦
$11,957 交易量
是
沙特阿拉伯
$41,566 交易量
是
巴林
$204,021 交易量
是
阿联酋
$112,616 交易量
是
科威特
$14,518 交易量
是
土耳其
$45,186 交易量
否
塞浦路斯
$29,238 交易量
否
卡塔尔
$262,965 交易量
否
伊拉克
$2,113,422 交易量
是
阿富汗
$12,182 交易量
否
巴基斯坦
$54,474 交易量
否
也门
$21,664 交易量
否
阿曼
$112,170 交易量
否
叙利亚
$28,090 交易量
否
黎巴嫩
$65,843 交易量
否
印度
$30,302 交易量
否
西班牙
$11,385 交易量
否
法国
$50,991 交易量
否
德国
$22,889 交易量
否
波兰
$40,238 交易量
否
意大利
$4,107 交易量
否
匈牙利
$26,172 交易量
否
乌克兰
$16,197 交易量
否
阿塞拜疆
$109,980 交易量
否
亚美尼亚
$11,913 交易量
否
格鲁吉亚
$18,231 交易量
否
英国
$31,836 交易量
否
沙特阿拉伯
$13,021 交易量
是
约旦
$79,392 交易量
否
巴林
$1,194,234 交易量
否
科威特
$1,039,409 交易量
是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$5,846,810结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$5,846,810结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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