Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations in Geneva and Rome that ended without agreement in late February, followed by Iran's denial of recent progress claimed by President Trump on March 24. A US 15-point proposal presented March 25 demands zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, and an end to proxy funding for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas—positions Tehran rejects amid ongoing airstrikes on its nuclear sites and sanctions escalation. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and a potential April 6 strike deadline looming, irreconcilable demands and military tensions leave scant room for compromise before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$120,372 交易量
$120,372 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
是
$120,372 交易量
$120,372 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations in Geneva and Rome that ended without agreement in late February, followed by Iran's denial of recent progress claimed by President Trump on March 24. A US 15-point proposal presented March 25 demands zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, and an end to proxy funding for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas—positions Tehran rejects amid ongoing airstrikes on its nuclear sites and sanctions escalation. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and a potential April 6 strike deadline looming, irreconcilable demands and military tensions leave scant room for compromise before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
交易量
$120,372结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations in Geneva and Rome that ended without agreement in late February, followed by Iran's denial of recent progress claimed by President Trump on March 24. A US 15-point proposal presented March 25 demands zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, and an end to proxy funding for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas—positions Tehran rejects amid ongoing airstrikes on its nuclear sites and sanctions escalation. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and a potential April 6 strike deadline looming, irreconcilable demands and military tensions leave scant room for compromise before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$120,372结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 86% chance of no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by stalled indirect negotiations in Geneva and Rome that ended without agreement in late February, followed by Iran's denial of recent progress claimed by President Trump on March 24. A US 15-point proposal presented March 25 demands zero uranium enrichment, dismantling of Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, missile caps, and an end to proxy funding for Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas—positions Tehran rejects amid ongoing airstrikes on its nuclear sites and sanctions escalation. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and a potential April 6 strike deadline looming, irreconcilable demands and military tensions leave scant room for compromise before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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