Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in Isfahan and other facilities, reported within the last 24 hours, have escalated tensions, making a diplomatic agreement unlikely as traders price "No" at 82.5%. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment entirely, and surrender stockpiles for IAEA verification, which Tehran has rejected amid ongoing defiance. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight Iran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged sites, while February Geneva talks yielded no deal despite mediator Oman noting partial progress on stockpile limits. With military actions dominating and no public Iranian commitment to halt enrichment by April 30, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$136,897 交易量
$136,897 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
是
$136,897 交易量
$136,897 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in Isfahan and other facilities, reported within the last 24 hours, have escalated tensions, making a diplomatic agreement unlikely as traders price "No" at 82.5%. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment entirely, and surrender stockpiles for IAEA verification, which Tehran has rejected amid ongoing defiance. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight Iran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged sites, while February Geneva talks yielded no deal despite mediator Oman noting partial progress on stockpile limits. With military actions dominating and no public Iranian commitment to halt enrichment by April 30, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
交易量
$136,897结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in Isfahan and other facilities, reported within the last 24 hours, have escalated tensions, making a diplomatic agreement unlikely as traders price "No" at 82.5%. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment entirely, and surrender stockpiles for IAEA verification, which Tehran has rejected amid ongoing defiance. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight Iran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged sites, while February Geneva talks yielded no deal despite mediator Oman noting partial progress on stockpile limits. With military actions dominating and no public Iranian commitment to halt enrichment by April 30, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$136,897结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in Isfahan and other facilities, reported within the last 24 hours, have escalated tensions, making a diplomatic agreement unlikely as traders price "No" at 82.5%. The US presented a 15-point proposal on March 25 demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment entirely, and surrender stockpiles for IAEA verification, which Tehran has rejected amid ongoing defiance. IAEA reports from March 19 highlight Iran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged sites, while February Geneva talks yielded no deal despite mediator Oman noting partial progress on stockpile limits. With military actions dominating and no public Iranian commitment to halt enrichment by April 30, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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