Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.8% that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal two days ago demanding nuclear program dismantlement and handover of enriched material amid ongoing war tensions. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes have reportedly crippled Iran's enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow, per Netanyahu's March 19 statement, while IAEA inspectors remain blocked from verification as of March 19, underscoring defiance despite damaged facilities. With the deadline hours away and no diplomatic breakthroughs signaled, barriers include institutional hardline opposition and failed Geneva talks; only a last-minute official concession could shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$2,141,425 交易量
$2,141,425 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$2,141,425 交易量
$2,141,425 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.8% that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal two days ago demanding nuclear program dismantlement and handover of enriched material amid ongoing war tensions. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes have reportedly crippled Iran's enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow, per Netanyahu's March 19 statement, while IAEA inspectors remain blocked from verification as of March 19, underscoring defiance despite damaged facilities. With the deadline hours away and no diplomatic breakthroughs signaled, barriers include institutional hardline opposition and failed Geneva talks; only a last-minute official concession could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
交易量
$2,141,425结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.8% that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal two days ago demanding nuclear program dismantlement and handover of enriched material amid ongoing war tensions. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes have reportedly crippled Iran's enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow, per Netanyahu's March 19 statement, while IAEA inspectors remain blocked from verification as of March 19, underscoring defiance despite damaged facilities. With the deadline hours away and no diplomatic breakthroughs signaled, barriers include institutional hardline opposition and failed Geneva talks; only a last-minute official concession could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,141,425结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 98.8% that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by March 31, driven by Tehran's rejection of a U.S. 15-point proposal two days ago demanding nuclear program dismantlement and handover of enriched material amid ongoing war tensions. Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes have reportedly crippled Iran's enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow, per Netanyahu's March 19 statement, while IAEA inspectors remain blocked from verification as of March 19, underscoring defiance despite damaged facilities. With the deadline hours away and no diplomatic breakthroughs signaled, barriers include institutional hardline opposition and failed Geneva talks; only a last-minute official concession could shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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