Recent Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, including Prince Sultan Air Base where 12 troops were wounded, alongside attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, have shifted trader sentiment, with UAE and Saudi Arabia signaling readiness for self-defense and offensive options via U.S. basing approvals and financial restrictions on Tehran. Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 29% implied probability for Gulf State military action by April 30—the leading outcome—up from prior levels, balancing escalation risks against historical restraint and oil export vulnerabilities amid Brent crude's volatility following an 11% plunge on U.S.-Iran talks. Elevated VIX nearing 30 reflects broader risk-off dynamics; monitor diplomatic channels and Strait of Hormuz shipping for resolution catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
16%
April 30
25%
$118 交易量
April 15
$94 交易量
16%
April 30
$24 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Recent Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, including Prince Sultan Air Base where 12 troops were wounded, alongside attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, have shifted trader sentiment, with UAE and Saudi Arabia signaling readiness for self-defense and offensive options via U.S. basing approvals and financial restrictions on Tehran. Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 29% implied probability for Gulf State military action by April 30—the leading outcome—up from prior levels, balancing escalation risks against historical restraint and oil export vulnerabilities amid Brent crude's volatility following an 11% plunge on U.S.-Iran talks. Elevated VIX nearing 30 reflects broader risk-off dynamics; monitor diplomatic channels and Strait of Hormuz shipping for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
交易量
$118结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Recent Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, including Prince Sultan Air Base where 12 troops were wounded, alongside attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, have shifted trader sentiment, with UAE and Saudi Arabia signaling readiness for self-defense and offensive options via U.S. basing approvals and financial restrictions on Tehran. Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 29% implied probability for Gulf State military action by April 30—the leading outcome—up from prior levels, balancing escalation risks against historical restraint and oil export vulnerabilities amid Brent crude's volatility following an 11% plunge on U.S.-Iran talks. Elevated VIX nearing 30 reflects broader risk-off dynamics; monitor diplomatic channels and Strait of Hormuz shipping for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$118结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, including Prince Sultan Air Base where 12 troops were wounded, alongside attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, have shifted trader sentiment, with UAE and Saudi Arabia signaling readiness for self-defense and offensive options via U.S. basing approvals and financial restrictions on Tehran. Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 29% implied probability for Gulf State military action by April 30—the leading outcome—up from prior levels, balancing escalation risks against historical restraint and oil export vulnerabilities amid Brent crude's volatility following an 11% plunge on U.S.-Iran talks. Elevated VIX nearing 30 reflects broader risk-off dynamics; monitor diplomatic channels and Strait of Hormuz shipping for resolution catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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