A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,919,033 交易量
2026-04-30
阿联酋
7%
沙特阿拉伯
5%
卡塔尔
2%
科威特
2%
土耳其
1%
约旦
1%
任何欧盟国家
1%
巴林
1%
阿曼
1%
英国
1%
法国
1%
德国
<1%
加拿大
<1%
$2,919,033 交易量
阿联酋
$1,446,404 交易量
7%
沙特阿拉伯
$524,188 交易量
5%
卡塔尔
$28,180 交易量
2%
科威特
$118,231 交易量
2%
土耳其
$70,408 交易量
1%
约旦
$20,425 交易量
1%
任何欧盟国家
$47,281 交易量
1%
巴林
$51,974 交易量
1%
阿曼
$30,136 交易量
1%
英国
$234,111 交易量
1%
法国
$187,512 交易量
1%
德国
$120,277 交易量
<1%
加拿大
$39,907 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$2,919,033结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,919,033结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 7-8 between the US, Israel, and Iran and brokered amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, has held since suppressing intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, missile forces, leadership, and infrastructure that began February 28. Trader consensus reflects this de-escalation, with no verified strikes by major actors like the US or Israel in the past 10 days despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and reported violations. Iran's Supreme Leader warned on April 18 of naval readiness against US and Israeli forces, while President Trump rejected Strait of Hormuz blackmail; the truce expires around April 22, potentially preceding resumed airstrikes, naval blockades, or diplomatic talks on a US nuclear proposal before the April 30 resolution. Gulf states face proxy threats but no confirmed offensive actions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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