President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,383,255 交易量
2026-04-14
4月14日
否
4月21日
是
$1,383,255 交易量
4月14日
$659,603 交易量
否
4月21日
$723,652 交易量
是
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
交易量
$1,383,255结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has been broken or violated by either the United States or Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that either the United States or Iran has violated or broken the ceasefire, or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that a breach of the ceasefire has occurred. A statement that either party is no longer committed to the ceasefire is not required.
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the ceasefire (e.g., "Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly labeling them as a breach or equivalent violation of the ceasefire will not alone suffice.
Announcements that the ceasefire has been broken solely in the context of actions by Israel (e.g., "Israel/Hezbollah broke the ceasefire"), without any indication that the United States or Iran has broken the ceasefire, will not qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the United States withdraws from the ceasefire agreement or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
交易量
$1,383,255结束日期
2026-04-21市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
President Trump's April 19 accusation that Iran committed a "serious violation" of the two-week ceasefire—through gunfire targeting foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—has sharply escalated tensions, driving trader consensus toward an imminent official announcement of the truce being broken by April 21. The fragile agreement, announced April 7 amid US naval blockade and Iranian restrictions on the vital waterway, remains contingent on broader diplomatic progress, with US negotiators heading to Pakistan for talks on April 20. Despite Trump's parallel optimism for a peace deal, mutual recriminations over Hormuz access signal high risk of formal rupture, outweighing de-escalation scenarios absent sudden concessions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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