US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, to target nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and leadership, persist into a sixth week despite severe degradation of Tehran's medium-range missile arsenal and sharp drop in its retaliatory launches. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes including an F-15, spurring search-and-rescue operations for a missing crewmember, as President Trump issued a rejected 48-hour ultimatum for a ceasefire deal threatening infrastructure strikes. With high-value targets dwindling per Pentagon assessments and the Strait of Hormuz closed amid oil disruptions, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over imminent de-escalation via talks, regime pressures, or escalation risks like ground incursions ahead of the deadline's expiry.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$334,869 交易量
2026-03-31
4月15日
5%
4月30日
22%
5月31日
51%
6月30日
70%
$334,869 交易量
4月15日
$36,842 交易量
5%
4月30日
$25,290 交易量
22%
5月31日
$12,995 交易量
51%
6月30日
$11,510 交易量
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, to target nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and leadership, persist into a sixth week despite severe degradation of Tehran's medium-range missile arsenal and sharp drop in its retaliatory launches. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes including an F-15, spurring search-and-rescue operations for a missing crewmember, as President Trump issued a rejected 48-hour ultimatum for a ceasefire deal threatening infrastructure strikes. With high-value targets dwindling per Pentagon assessments and the Strait of Hormuz closed amid oil disruptions, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over imminent de-escalation via talks, regime pressures, or escalation risks like ground incursions ahead of the deadline's expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
交易量
$334,869结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, to target nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and leadership, persist into a sixth week despite severe degradation of Tehran's medium-range missile arsenal and sharp drop in its retaliatory launches. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes including an F-15, spurring search-and-rescue operations for a missing crewmember, as President Trump issued a rejected 48-hour ultimatum for a ceasefire deal threatening infrastructure strikes. With high-value targets dwindling per Pentagon assessments and the Strait of Hormuz closed amid oil disruptions, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over imminent de-escalation via talks, regime pressures, or escalation risks like ground incursions ahead of the deadline's expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$334,869结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, initiated February 28, 2026, to target nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, and leadership, persist into a sixth week despite severe degradation of Tehran's medium-range missile arsenal and sharp drop in its retaliatory launches. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes including an F-15, spurring search-and-rescue operations for a missing crewmember, as President Trump issued a rejected 48-hour ultimatum for a ceasefire deal threatening infrastructure strikes. With high-value targets dwindling per Pentagon assessments and the Strait of Hormuz closed amid oil disruptions, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over imminent de-escalation via talks, regime pressures, or escalation risks like ground incursions ahead of the deadline's expiry.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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