US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, air defenses, petrochemical facilities, and border crossings continue unabated into the sixth week of hostilities that erupted on February 28, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a protracted conflict amid Iran's degraded but persistent retaliation capabilities. Over the past 48 hours, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter and A-10 aircraft—the first such losses—while launching cluster-munition ballistic missiles at Israel and drones at Gulf states like UAE and Kuwait; strikes near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant caused non-radiological damage. President Trump's rejected 48-hour ultimatum for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, expiring imminently, signals escalation risks, with no viable ceasefire talks and proxy actions by Hezbollah and Houthis sustaining regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$335,459 交易量
2026-03-31
4月15日
5%
4月30日
22%
5月31日
54%
6月30日
69%
$335,459 交易量
4月15日
$36,867 交易量
5%
4月30日
$25,831 交易量
22%
5月31日
$12,995 交易量
54%
6月30日
$11,534 交易量
69%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, air defenses, petrochemical facilities, and border crossings continue unabated into the sixth week of hostilities that erupted on February 28, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a protracted conflict amid Iran's degraded but persistent retaliation capabilities. Over the past 48 hours, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter and A-10 aircraft—the first such losses—while launching cluster-munition ballistic missiles at Israel and drones at Gulf states like UAE and Kuwait; strikes near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant caused non-radiological damage. President Trump's rejected 48-hour ultimatum for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, expiring imminently, signals escalation risks, with no viable ceasefire talks and proxy actions by Hezbollah and Houthis sustaining regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
交易量
$335,459结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, air defenses, petrochemical facilities, and border crossings continue unabated into the sixth week of hostilities that erupted on February 28, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a protracted conflict amid Iran's degraded but persistent retaliation capabilities. Over the past 48 hours, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter and A-10 aircraft—the first such losses—while launching cluster-munition ballistic missiles at Israel and drones at Gulf states like UAE and Kuwait; strikes near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant caused non-radiological damage. President Trump's rejected 48-hour ultimatum for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, expiring imminently, signals escalation risks, with no viable ceasefire talks and proxy actions by Hezbollah and Houthis sustaining regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$335,459结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile sites, air defenses, petrochemical facilities, and border crossings continue unabated into the sixth week of hostilities that erupted on February 28, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a protracted conflict amid Iran's degraded but persistent retaliation capabilities. Over the past 48 hours, Iran downed a US F-15E fighter and A-10 aircraft—the first such losses—while launching cluster-munition ballistic missiles at Israel and drones at Gulf states like UAE and Kuwait; strikes near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant caused non-radiological damage. President Trump's rejected 48-hour ultimatum for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, expiring imminently, signals escalation risks, with no viable ceasefire talks and proxy actions by Hezbollah and Houthis sustaining regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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