Trump's status as president-elect, with inauguration not until January 20, 2025, underpins low trader consensus on a formal war declaration against Iran, a congressional power unused since World War II. Recent Israel-Iran missile exchanges, including Israel's October 26 strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran's limited response, have heightened Middle East tensions, but Trump has publicly urged Israel to "hit them hard" while emphasizing U.S. restraint to avoid "forever wars." His past Soleimani strike shows hawkish tendencies, yet post-election rhetoric prioritizes China over Iran escalation. Traders watch for potential Houthi disruptions or nuclear talks resumption, which could shift dynamics before any early-term decisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$528,330 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
3月31日
1%
4月30日
72%
$528,330 交易量
3月31日
$201,309 交易量
1%
4月30日
$0 交易量
72%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$528,330结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$528,330结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's status as president-elect, with inauguration not until January 20, 2025, underpins low trader consensus on a formal war declaration against Iran, a congressional power unused since World War II. Recent Israel-Iran missile exchanges, including Israel's October 26 strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran's limited response, have heightened Middle East tensions, but Trump has publicly urged Israel to "hit them hard" while emphasizing U.S. restraint to avoid "forever wars." His past Soleimani strike shows hawkish tendencies, yet post-election rhetoric prioritizes China over Iran escalation. Traders watch for potential Houthi disruptions or nuclear talks resumption, which could shift dynamics before any early-term decisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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