Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring past 2026 at 64.5% "No," driven by its rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei following the late Supreme Leader's assassination, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly pledging loyalty in early March. Despite ongoing 2026 Iran war airstrikes by Israel and the US targeting IRGC sites and economic strain fueling sporadic anti-regime protests, US intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirm no imminent collapse risk, as security forces maintain control and opposition lacks ground presence. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports highlight continued missile salvos and protest suppression, underscoring regime resilience amid external pressures rather than internal overthrow. Escalating conflict or economic breakdown could shift odds, but structural loyalty holds firm.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$12,107,529 交易量
$12,107,529 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$12,107,529 交易量
$12,107,529 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring past 2026 at 64.5% "No," driven by its rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei following the late Supreme Leader's assassination, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly pledging loyalty in early March. Despite ongoing 2026 Iran war airstrikes by Israel and the US targeting IRGC sites and economic strain fueling sporadic anti-regime protests, US intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirm no imminent collapse risk, as security forces maintain control and opposition lacks ground presence. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports highlight continued missile salvos and protest suppression, underscoring regime resilience amid external pressures rather than internal overthrow. Escalating conflict or economic breakdown could shift odds, but structural loyalty holds firm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$12,107,529结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring past 2026 at 64.5% "No," driven by its rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei following the late Supreme Leader's assassination, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly pledging loyalty in early March. Despite ongoing 2026 Iran war airstrikes by Israel and the US targeting IRGC sites and economic strain fueling sporadic anti-regime protests, US intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirm no imminent collapse risk, as security forces maintain control and opposition lacks ground presence. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports highlight continued missile salvos and protest suppression, underscoring regime resilience amid external pressures rather than internal overthrow. Escalating conflict or economic breakdown could shift odds, but structural loyalty holds firm.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$12,107,529结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime enduring past 2026 at 64.5% "No," driven by its rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei following the late Supreme Leader's assassination, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly pledging loyalty in early March. Despite ongoing 2026 Iran war airstrikes by Israel and the US targeting IRGC sites and economic strain fueling sporadic anti-regime protests, US intelligence assessments as of mid-March confirm no imminent collapse risk, as security forces maintain control and opposition lacks ground presence. Recent Institute for the Study of War reports highlight continued missile salvos and protest suppression, underscoring regime resilience amid external pressures rather than internal overthrow. Escalating conflict or economic breakdown could shift odds, but structural loyalty holds firm.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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