Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime's survival before 2027 at 82.5% implied probability for "No," driven by its resilience amid severe early-2026 shocks: January protests over economic crisis and war threats were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March. Recent Strait of Hormuz ship seizures in April and ongoing ceasefire reconstitution efforts, as noted in May 13 Institute for the Study of War reports, underscore IRGC command continuity despite proxy losses and sanctions. Sporadic resistance unit actions persist, but no mass unrest has reemerged, with US intelligence doubting opposition seizure of power; negotiations in Islamabad could further stabilize the leadership amid economic pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$17,639,094 交易量
$17,639,094 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$17,639,094 交易量
$17,639,094 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime's survival before 2027 at 82.5% implied probability for "No," driven by its resilience amid severe early-2026 shocks: January protests over economic crisis and war threats were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March. Recent Strait of Hormuz ship seizures in April and ongoing ceasefire reconstitution efforts, as noted in May 13 Institute for the Study of War reports, underscore IRGC command continuity despite proxy losses and sanctions. Sporadic resistance unit actions persist, but no mass unrest has reemerged, with US intelligence doubting opposition seizure of power; negotiations in Islamabad could further stabilize the leadership amid economic pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$17,639,094结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime's survival before 2027 at 82.5% implied probability for "No," driven by its resilience amid severe early-2026 shocks: January protests over economic crisis and war threats were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March. Recent Strait of Hormuz ship seizures in April and ongoing ceasefire reconstitution efforts, as noted in May 13 Institute for the Study of War reports, underscore IRGC command continuity despite proxy losses and sanctions. Sporadic resistance unit actions persist, but no mass unrest has reemerged, with US intelligence doubting opposition seizure of power; negotiations in Islamabad could further stabilize the leadership amid economic pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,639,094结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors the Iranian regime's survival before 2027 at 82.5% implied probability for "No," driven by its resilience amid severe early-2026 shocks: January protests over economic crisis and war threats were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in US-Israeli airstrikes prompted a swift succession to his son Mojtaba Khamenei by early March. Recent Strait of Hormuz ship seizures in April and ongoing ceasefire reconstitution efforts, as noted in May 13 Institute for the Study of War reports, underscore IRGC command continuity despite proxy losses and sanctions. Sporadic resistance unit actions persist, but no mass unrest has reemerged, with US intelligence doubting opposition seizure of power; negotiations in Islamabad could further stabilize the leadership amid economic pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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