Persistent Israel-Iran tensions, anchored by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage, dominate trader sentiment for potential military action by March 31. The United States supplied defensive support via Iron Dome intercepts but avoided direct offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Recent UN Security Council statements and IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear activities highlight diplomatic pressures, while no new escalatory military moves have occurred in the past two weeks. The November 5 US presidential election represents a key upcoming catalyst, as divergent foreign policy approaches to Iran could reshape alliances and deterrence postures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$10,137,600 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
阿联酋
6%
沙特阿拉伯
6%
卡塔尔
3%
巴林
3%
科威特
2%
任意欧盟国家
2%
英国
2%
约旦
1%
土耳其
1%
阿曼
1%
法国
1%
德国
<1%
加拿大
<1%
$10,137,600 交易量
阿联酋
$2,518,086 交易量
6%
沙特阿拉伯
$2,005,903 交易量
6%
卡塔尔
$922,531 交易量
3%
巴林
$383,048 交易量
3%
科威特
$202,407 交易量
2%
任意欧盟国家
$443,179 交易量
2%
英国
$927,675 交易量
2%
约旦
$183,019 交易量
1%
土耳其
$467,028 交易量
1%
阿曼
$128,149 交易量
1%
法国
$719,415 交易量
1%
德国
$903,810 交易量
<1%
加拿大
$333,350 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Israel-Iran tensions, anchored by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage, dominate trader sentiment for potential military action by March 31. The United States supplied defensive support via Iron Dome intercepts but avoided direct offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Recent UN Security Council statements and IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear activities highlight diplomatic pressures, while no new escalatory military moves have occurred in the past two weeks. The November 5 US presidential election represents a key upcoming catalyst, as divergent foreign policy approaches to Iran could reshape alliances and deterrence postures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$10,137,600结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent Israel-Iran tensions, anchored by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage, dominate trader sentiment for potential military action by March 31. The United States supplied defensive support via Iron Dome intercepts but avoided direct offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Recent UN Security Council statements and IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear activities highlight diplomatic pressures, while no new escalatory military moves have occurred in the past two weeks. The November 5 US presidential election represents a key upcoming catalyst, as divergent foreign policy approaches to Iran could reshape alliances and deterrence postures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,137,600结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Israel-Iran tensions, anchored by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile production sites in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage, dominate trader sentiment for potential military action by March 31. The United States supplied defensive support via Iron Dome intercepts but avoided direct offensive involvement, prioritizing de-escalation amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. Recent UN Security Council statements and IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear activities highlight diplomatic pressures, while no new escalatory military moves have occurred in the past two weeks. The November 5 US presidential election represents a key upcoming catalyst, as divergent foreign policy approaches to Iran could reshape alliances and deterrence postures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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