**Trader consensus implies a 43% probability of Israel striking five distinct countries in 2026**, driven by its current multi-front military engagements against Iran-backed groups: Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, and direct exchanges with Iran, plus operations in Gaza under Palestinian control. Airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian assets as recently as December 2024 highlight persistent threats from this axis, with Houthi missile launches from Yemen and Hezbollah rocket barrages sustaining escalation pressures despite intermittent ceasefire talks. No new countries have been targeted in the past month, anchoring odds around 4–6 amid diplomatic stalemates, potential U.S. policy shifts post-inauguration, and risks of wider conflict involving Iraq or others. (112 words)
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于5 42.6%
4 26.4%
6 13.4%
3 5.1%
$3,327,463 交易量
$3,327,463 交易量
3
5%
4
26%
5
43%
6
13%
7
2%
8
4%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
5 42.6%
4 26.4%
6 13.4%
3 5.1%
$3,327,463 交易量
$3,327,463 交易量
3
5%
4
26%
5
43%
6
13%
7
2%
8
4%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus implies a 43% probability of Israel striking five distinct countries in 2026**, driven by its current multi-front military engagements against Iran-backed groups: Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, and direct exchanges with Iran, plus operations in Gaza under Palestinian control. Airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian assets as recently as December 2024 highlight persistent threats from this axis, with Houthi missile launches from Yemen and Hezbollah rocket barrages sustaining escalation pressures despite intermittent ceasefire talks. No new countries have been targeted in the past month, anchoring odds around 4–6 amid diplomatic stalemates, potential U.S. policy shifts post-inauguration, and risks of wider conflict involving Iraq or others. (112 words)
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题