Israel's military campaign in 2026 has centered on major strikes against Iran beginning February 28 and sustained operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including recent precision strikes in Beirut's southern suburbs on June 14 amid renewed drone and rocket threats. Ongoing activity in Gaza has added a third front, while traders price in the possibility of limited additional strikes on Iranian proxies such as Houthis in Yemen or targets in Syria depending on escalation patterns through year-end. The concentration of probabilities on four or five countries reflects the current multi-front posture established since the Iran war's opening phase, tempered by the April ceasefire framework and ongoing diplomatic talks that could constrain further expansion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4 46.5%
5 30.6%
6 3.9%
7 2.3%
$6,843,894 交易量
$6,843,894 交易量
2026-12-31
4
46%
5
31%
6
4%
7
2%
8
2%
9
1%
10
2%
11
<1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 46.5%
5 30.6%
6 3.9%
7 2.3%
$6,843,894 交易量
$6,843,894 交易量
2026-12-31
4
$1,173,055 交易量
46%
5
$514,830 交易量
31%
6
$642,603 交易量
4%
7
$613,513 交易量
2%
8
$526,859 交易量
2%
9
$232,706 交易量
1%
10
$395,672 交易量
2%
11
$131,294 交易量
<1%
12
$112,230 交易量
<1%
13
$162,805 交易量
<1%
14
$179,328 交易量
<1%
15+
$70,492 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's military campaign in 2026 has centered on major strikes against Iran beginning February 28 and sustained operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including recent precision strikes in Beirut's southern suburbs on June 14 amid renewed drone and rocket threats. Ongoing activity in Gaza has added a third front, while traders price in the possibility of limited additional strikes on Iranian proxies such as Houthis in Yemen or targets in Syria depending on escalation patterns through year-end. The concentration of probabilities on four or five countries reflects the current multi-front posture established since the Iran war's opening phase, tempered by the April ceasefire framework and ongoing diplomatic talks that could constrain further expansion.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
交易量
$6,843,894结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's military campaign in 2026 has centered on major strikes against Iran beginning February 28 and sustained operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including recent precision strikes in Beirut's southern suburbs on June 14 amid renewed drone and rocket threats. Ongoing activity in Gaza has added a third front, while traders price in the possibility of limited additional strikes on Iranian proxies such as Houthis in Yemen or targets in Syria depending on escalation patterns through year-end. The concentration of probabilities on four or five countries reflects the current multi-front posture established since the Iran war's opening phase, tempered by the April ceasefire framework and ongoing diplomatic talks that could constrain further expansion.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,843,894结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Israel's military campaign in 2026 has centered on major strikes against Iran beginning February 28 and sustained operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon, including recent precision strikes in Beirut's southern suburbs on June 14 amid renewed drone and rocket threats. Ongoing activity in Gaza has added a third front, while traders price in the possibility of limited additional strikes on Iranian proxies such as Houthis in Yemen or targets in Syria depending on escalation patterns through year-end. The concentration of probabilities on four or five countries reflects the current multi-front posture established since the Iran war's opening phase, tempered by the April ceasefire framework and ongoing diplomatic talks that could constrain further expansion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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