Trader consensus prices a 94.5% probability on "No" for President Trump exiting office by June 30, driven by the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or resignation signals amid his ongoing second term ending January 2029. Yesterday's April 1 Oval Office address, where Trump stated the Iran war is nearing completion with U.S. forces withdrawing in two to three weeks, highlights his active executive leadership and operational continuity just one month into the conflict. Symbolic House impeachment resolutions from early 2025-2026 have stalled without Senate traction, given Republican majorities, while no verified health issues or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to prompt early departure. Late-breaking legal challenges or health events remain outlier risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$1,964,728 交易量
$1,964,728 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$1,964,728 交易量
$1,964,728 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 94.5% probability on "No" for President Trump exiting office by June 30, driven by the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or resignation signals amid his ongoing second term ending January 2029. Yesterday's April 1 Oval Office address, where Trump stated the Iran war is nearing completion with U.S. forces withdrawing in two to three weeks, highlights his active executive leadership and operational continuity just one month into the conflict. Symbolic House impeachment resolutions from early 2025-2026 have stalled without Senate traction, given Republican majorities, while no verified health issues or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to prompt early departure. Late-breaking legal challenges or health events remain outlier risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
交易量
$1,964,728结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 94.5% probability on "No" for President Trump exiting office by June 30, driven by the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or resignation signals amid his ongoing second term ending January 2029. Yesterday's April 1 Oval Office address, where Trump stated the Iran war is nearing completion with U.S. forces withdrawing in two to three weeks, highlights his active executive leadership and operational continuity just one month into the conflict. Symbolic House impeachment resolutions from early 2025-2026 have stalled without Senate traction, given Republican majorities, while no verified health issues or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to prompt early departure. Late-breaking legal challenges or health events remain outlier risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,964,728结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 94.5% probability on "No" for President Trump exiting office by June 30, driven by the absence of impeachment proceedings, 25th Amendment invocations, or resignation signals amid his ongoing second term ending January 2029. Yesterday's April 1 Oval Office address, where Trump stated the Iran war is nearing completion with U.S. forces withdrawing in two to three weeks, highlights his active executive leadership and operational continuity just one month into the conflict. Symbolic House impeachment resolutions from early 2025-2026 have stalled without Senate traction, given Republican majorities, while no verified health issues or scandals have emerged in recent weeks to prompt early departure. Late-breaking legal challenges or health events remain outlier risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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