Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability of at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data, amid selective Iranian approvals for "non-hostile" vessels during the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent bilateral deals with Thailand, Pakistan, India, and Malaysia enabled 1-5 daily transits in late March—up from multi-day zeros but far below pre-conflict averages of 138 vessels—driving war risk premiums that spiked Brent crude above $110 per barrel and Mideast-China VLCC charter rates beyond $400,000/day. Key catalysts include upcoming IMF end-March reports, potential US Navy escorts by March 31, and further diplomatic clearances that could trigger a volume surge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
Apr 30, 2026
20+
70%
40+
36%
60+
31%
80+
16%
$3,002 交易量
20+
$1,363 交易量
70%
40+
$192 交易量
36%
60+
$1,054 交易量
31%
80+
$393 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability of at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data, amid selective Iranian approvals for "non-hostile" vessels during the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent bilateral deals with Thailand, Pakistan, India, and Malaysia enabled 1-5 daily transits in late March—up from multi-day zeros but far below pre-conflict averages of 138 vessels—driving war risk premiums that spiked Brent crude above $110 per barrel and Mideast-China VLCC charter rates beyond $400,000/day. Key catalysts include upcoming IMF end-March reports, potential US Navy escorts by March 31, and further diplomatic clearances that could trigger a volume surge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
交易量
$3,002结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability of at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data, amid selective Iranian approvals for "non-hostile" vessels during the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent bilateral deals with Thailand, Pakistan, India, and Malaysia enabled 1-5 daily transits in late March—up from multi-day zeros but far below pre-conflict averages of 138 vessels—driving war risk premiums that spiked Brent crude above $110 per barrel and Mideast-China VLCC charter rates beyond $400,000/day. Key catalysts include upcoming IMF end-March reports, potential US Navy escorts by March 31, and further diplomatic clearances that could trigger a volume surge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$3,002结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71% implied probability of at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, per IMF Portwatch arrivals data, amid selective Iranian approvals for "non-hostile" vessels during the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent bilateral deals with Thailand, Pakistan, India, and Malaysia enabled 1-5 daily transits in late March—up from multi-day zeros but far below pre-conflict averages of 138 vessels—driving war risk premiums that spiked Brent crude above $110 per barrel and Mideast-China VLCC charter rates beyond $400,000/day. Key catalysts include upcoming IMF end-March reports, potential US Navy escorts by March 31, and further diplomatic clearances that could trigger a volume surge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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