Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects drastically curtailed Strait of Hormuz transits amid the 2026 Iran conflict, with daily vessel counts averaging under 6 throughout March—down over 95% from pre-crisis norms of 130-138 ships—driven by Iranian gatekeeping that permits only "non-hostile" vessels like recent Chinese container ships on March 30-31. Over 150 tankers remain anchored nearby, inflating shipping insurance premiums and spot charter rates while embedding supply disruption risk into energy markets, where Brent crude futures traded near $108 per barrel and WTI around $102 as of March 30. Resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch's final March data; April catalysts include potential U.S. escorts or toll negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$615,720 交易量
2026-03-31
20+
2%
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60+
1%
80+
<1%
$615,720 交易量
20+
$285,306 交易量
2%
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$103,291 交易量
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$88,562 交易量
1%
80+
$138,560 交易量
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects drastically curtailed Strait of Hormuz transits amid the 2026 Iran conflict, with daily vessel counts averaging under 6 throughout March—down over 95% from pre-crisis norms of 130-138 ships—driven by Iranian gatekeeping that permits only "non-hostile" vessels like recent Chinese container ships on March 30-31. Over 150 tankers remain anchored nearby, inflating shipping insurance premiums and spot charter rates while embedding supply disruption risk into energy markets, where Brent crude futures traded near $108 per barrel and WTI around $102 as of March 30. Resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch's final March data; April catalysts include potential U.S. escorts or toll negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$615,720结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects drastically curtailed Strait of Hormuz transits amid the 2026 Iran conflict, with daily vessel counts averaging under 6 throughout March—down over 95% from pre-crisis norms of 130-138 ships—driven by Iranian gatekeeping that permits only "non-hostile" vessels like recent Chinese container ships on March 30-31. Over 150 tankers remain anchored nearby, inflating shipping insurance premiums and spot charter rates while embedding supply disruption risk into energy markets, where Brent crude futures traded near $108 per barrel and WTI around $102 as of March 30. Resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch's final March data; April catalysts include potential U.S. escorts or toll negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$615,720结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects drastically curtailed Strait of Hormuz transits amid the 2026 Iran conflict, with daily vessel counts averaging under 6 throughout March—down over 95% from pre-crisis norms of 130-138 ships—driven by Iranian gatekeeping that permits only "non-hostile" vessels like recent Chinese container ships on March 30-31. Over 150 tankers remain anchored nearby, inflating shipping insurance premiums and spot charter rates while embedding supply disruption risk into energy markets, where Brent crude futures traded near $108 per barrel and WTI around $102 as of March 30. Resolution hinges on IMF Portwatch's final March data; April catalysts include potential U.S. escorts or toll negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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