Iranian disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 have collapsed daily ship transits to 0-10 vessels on average throughout March, per IMF Portwatch data, versus normal levels exceeding 100 arrivals. This de facto blockade amid US-Iran conflict—with IRGC enforcing selective, tolled passages primarily for linked vessels—has fueled Brent crude surges past $105 per barrel as of March 31, pricing in risks to 20% of global seaborne oil flows and heightened tanker charter rates. Trader consensus reflects minimal normalization prospects for March, with late-month upticks to 4-7 ships failing key thresholds. Upcoming US naval escorts and Persian Gulf diplomatic signals loom as pivotal for April traffic recovery and energy price stabilization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$635,334 交易量
2026-03-31
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2%
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<1%
80+
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$635,334 交易量
20+
$292,130 交易量
2%
40+
$106,348 交易量
<1%
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$90,976 交易量
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$145,880 交易量
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iranian disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 have collapsed daily ship transits to 0-10 vessels on average throughout March, per IMF Portwatch data, versus normal levels exceeding 100 arrivals. This de facto blockade amid US-Iran conflict—with IRGC enforcing selective, tolled passages primarily for linked vessels—has fueled Brent crude surges past $105 per barrel as of March 31, pricing in risks to 20% of global seaborne oil flows and heightened tanker charter rates. Trader consensus reflects minimal normalization prospects for March, with late-month upticks to 4-7 ships failing key thresholds. Upcoming US naval escorts and Persian Gulf diplomatic signals loom as pivotal for April traffic recovery and energy price stabilization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$635,334结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iranian disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 have collapsed daily ship transits to 0-10 vessels on average throughout March, per IMF Portwatch data, versus normal levels exceeding 100 arrivals. This de facto blockade amid US-Iran conflict—with IRGC enforcing selective, tolled passages primarily for linked vessels—has fueled Brent crude surges past $105 per barrel as of March 31, pricing in risks to 20% of global seaborne oil flows and heightened tanker charter rates. Trader consensus reflects minimal normalization prospects for March, with late-month upticks to 4-7 ships failing key thresholds. Upcoming US naval escorts and Persian Gulf diplomatic signals loom as pivotal for April traffic recovery and energy price stabilization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$635,334结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 have collapsed daily ship transits to 0-10 vessels on average throughout March, per IMF Portwatch data, versus normal levels exceeding 100 arrivals. This de facto blockade amid US-Iran conflict—with IRGC enforcing selective, tolled passages primarily for linked vessels—has fueled Brent crude surges past $105 per barrel as of March 31, pricing in risks to 20% of global seaborne oil flows and heightened tanker charter rates. Trader consensus reflects minimal normalization prospects for March, with late-month upticks to 4-7 ships failing key thresholds. Upcoming US naval escorts and Persian Gulf diplomatic signals loom as pivotal for April traffic recovery and energy price stabilization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
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