Ongoing military conflict in the Persian Gulf since late February 2026 has drastically reduced commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz—from a pre-crisis average of 130 daily to 1-6 ships most days, with a modest uptick to 11 on March 28, 9 on March 29, and 6 on March 30, including two Chinese container ships under selective IRGC approvals. This sporadic traffic amid Iranian threats, attacks on shipping, and de facto toll-like controls drives trader consensus toward 25-29 total transits for March 30-April 5, keeping top outcomes tightly clustered at 22%-16.5% implied probabilities. The race stays close due to daily fluctuations and uncertainty over Iranian restrictions; separation could arise from US naval escorts reopening lanes, diplomatic de-escalation boosting flows, or intensified strikes dropping counts below 20.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)
25-29 22%
30-34 17%
35-39 17%
20-24 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
<10
3%
10-14
4%
15-19
8%
20-24
15%
25-29
22%
30-34
17%
35-39
17%
40-44
12%
45+
13%
25-29 22%
30-34 17%
35-39 17%
20-24 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
<10
$511 交易量
3%
10-14
$451 交易量
4%
15-19
$357 交易量
8%
20-24
$371 交易量
15%
25-29
$429 交易量
22%
30-34
$326 交易量
17%
35-39
$327 交易量
17%
40-44
$270 交易量
12%
45+
$529 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military conflict in the Persian Gulf since late February 2026 has drastically reduced commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz—from a pre-crisis average of 130 daily to 1-6 ships most days, with a modest uptick to 11 on March 28, 9 on March 29, and 6 on March 30, including two Chinese container ships under selective IRGC approvals. This sporadic traffic amid Iranian threats, attacks on shipping, and de facto toll-like controls drives trader consensus toward 25-29 total transits for March 30-April 5, keeping top outcomes tightly clustered at 22%-16.5% implied probabilities. The race stays close due to daily fluctuations and uncertainty over Iranian restrictions; separation could arise from US naval escorts reopening lanes, diplomatic de-escalation boosting flows, or intensified strikes dropping counts below 20.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$3,572结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing military conflict in the Persian Gulf since late February 2026 has drastically reduced commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz—from a pre-crisis average of 130 daily to 1-6 ships most days, with a modest uptick to 11 on March 28, 9 on March 29, and 6 on March 30, including two Chinese container ships under selective IRGC approvals. This sporadic traffic amid Iranian threats, attacks on shipping, and de facto toll-like controls drives trader consensus toward 25-29 total transits for March 30-April 5, keeping top outcomes tightly clustered at 22%-16.5% implied probabilities. The race stays close due to daily fluctuations and uncertainty over Iranian restrictions; separation could arise from US naval escorts reopening lanes, diplomatic de-escalation boosting flows, or intensified strikes dropping counts below 20.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 30, 2026, through April 5, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$3,572结束日期
2026-04-05市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing military conflict in the Persian Gulf since late February 2026 has drastically reduced commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz—from a pre-crisis average of 130 daily to 1-6 ships most days, with a modest uptick to 11 on March 28, 9 on March 29, and 6 on March 30, including two Chinese container ships under selective IRGC approvals. This sporadic traffic amid Iranian threats, attacks on shipping, and de facto toll-like controls drives trader consensus toward 25-29 total transits for March 30-April 5, keeping top outcomes tightly clustered at 22%-16.5% implied probabilities. The race stays close due to daily fluctuations and uncertainty over Iranian restrictions; separation could arise from US naval escorts reopening lanes, diplomatic de-escalation boosting flows, or intensified strikes dropping counts below 20.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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