Trader consensus prices a slim 14.5% chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 amid stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks and Russia's intensifying spring offensive along the front line. Recent U.S.-Ukraine discussions in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs on territorial disputes or security guarantees, while Moscow cited a "situational pause" linked to Middle East escalations, including the Iran conflict boosting Russian oil revenues. Russian forces captured settlements in Donetsk and launched massive drone and missile barrages on March 23-24, with ISW reporting continued advances as of March 26. Kyiv refuses concessions on Donbas without firm guarantees, hardening positions despite Zelenskiy signaling readiness for new rounds. No scheduled talks loom before summer, underscoring entrenched military and diplomatic barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$3,645,040 交易量
$3,645,040 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$3,645,040 交易量
$3,645,040 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a slim 14.5% chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 amid stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks and Russia's intensifying spring offensive along the front line. Recent U.S.-Ukraine discussions in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs on territorial disputes or security guarantees, while Moscow cited a "situational pause" linked to Middle East escalations, including the Iran conflict boosting Russian oil revenues. Russian forces captured settlements in Donetsk and launched massive drone and missile barrages on March 23-24, with ISW reporting continued advances as of March 26. Kyiv refuses concessions on Donbas without firm guarantees, hardening positions despite Zelenskiy signaling readiness for new rounds. No scheduled talks loom before summer, underscoring entrenched military and diplomatic barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
交易量
$3,645,040结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a slim 14.5% chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 amid stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks and Russia's intensifying spring offensive along the front line. Recent U.S.-Ukraine discussions in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs on territorial disputes or security guarantees, while Moscow cited a "situational pause" linked to Middle East escalations, including the Iran conflict boosting Russian oil revenues. Russian forces captured settlements in Donetsk and launched massive drone and missile barrages on March 23-24, with ISW reporting continued advances as of March 26. Kyiv refuses concessions on Donbas without firm guarantees, hardening positions despite Zelenskiy signaling readiness for new rounds. No scheduled talks loom before summer, underscoring entrenched military and diplomatic barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$3,645,040结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a slim 14.5% chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 amid stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks and Russia's intensifying spring offensive along the front line. Recent U.S.-Ukraine discussions in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs on territorial disputes or security guarantees, while Moscow cited a "situational pause" linked to Middle East escalations, including the Iran conflict boosting Russian oil revenues. Russian forces captured settlements in Donetsk and launched massive drone and missile barrages on March 23-24, with ISW reporting continued advances as of March 26. Kyiv refuses concessions on Donbas without firm guarantees, hardening positions despite Zelenskiy signaling readiness for new rounds. No scheduled talks loom before summer, underscoring entrenched military and diplomatic barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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