Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war before 2027, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and the absence of a ceasefire. Ukraine's Central Election Commission ruled out 2026 presidential elections until at least six months post-ceasefire on March 20, complicating any parallel referendum logistics amid ongoing hostilities. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated on March 24 that Ukrainian membership by January 2027 is impossible, undermining proposed peace packages tied to security guarantees and EU accession. February talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended without breakthrough, with Zelenskyy insisting on full Russian withdrawal before any vote, while NGOs deem a referendum unlawful during wartime. Absent major de-escalation, traders see significant barriers to scheduling or approving such a vote by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
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Dec 31, 2026
是
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war before 2027, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and the absence of a ceasefire. Ukraine's Central Election Commission ruled out 2026 presidential elections until at least six months post-ceasefire on March 20, complicating any parallel referendum logistics amid ongoing hostilities. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated on March 24 that Ukrainian membership by January 2027 is impossible, undermining proposed peace packages tied to security guarantees and EU accession. February talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended without breakthrough, with Zelenskyy insisting on full Russian withdrawal before any vote, while NGOs deem a referendum unlawful during wartime. Absent major de-escalation, traders see significant barriers to scheduling or approving such a vote by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ET
交易量
$8,915结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war before 2027, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and the absence of a ceasefire. Ukraine's Central Election Commission ruled out 2026 presidential elections until at least six months post-ceasefire on March 20, complicating any parallel referendum logistics amid ongoing hostilities. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated on March 24 that Ukrainian membership by January 2027 is impossible, undermining proposed peace packages tied to security guarantees and EU accession. February talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended without breakthrough, with Zelenskyy insisting on full Russian withdrawal before any vote, while NGOs deem a referendum unlawful during wartime. Absent major de-escalation, traders see significant barriers to scheduling or approving such a vote by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,915结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability against Ukraine passing a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war before 2027, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and the absence of a ceasefire. Ukraine's Central Election Commission ruled out 2026 presidential elections until at least six months post-ceasefire on March 20, complicating any parallel referendum logistics amid ongoing hostilities. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stated on March 24 that Ukrainian membership by January 2027 is impossible, undermining proposed peace packages tied to security guarantees and EU accession. February talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended without breakthrough, with Zelenskyy insisting on full Russian withdrawal before any vote, while NGOs deem a referendum unlawful during wartime. Absent major de-escalation, traders see significant barriers to scheduling or approving such a vote by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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