Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 88%, reflecting stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which has diminished prospects for a breakthrough agreement by June 30. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that Ukraine's membership "is not on the cards for now," underscoring alliance caution without any public Ukrainian pledge to renounce aspirations enshrined in its constitution. Earlier U.S.-brokered Geneva meetings in February yielded no deal on neutrality, and recent rhetoric from figures like Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán emphasizes Ukraine as a buffer zone, yet Kyiv upholds NATO goals amid diplomatic impasse and ongoing military escalations, making a formal commitment to abstain highly improbable absent a ceasefire.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$15,880 交易量
$15,880 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$15,880 交易量
$15,880 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 88%, reflecting stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which has diminished prospects for a breakthrough agreement by June 30. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that Ukraine's membership "is not on the cards for now," underscoring alliance caution without any public Ukrainian pledge to renounce aspirations enshrined in its constitution. Earlier U.S.-brokered Geneva meetings in February yielded no deal on neutrality, and recent rhetoric from figures like Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán emphasizes Ukraine as a buffer zone, yet Kyiv upholds NATO goals amid diplomatic impasse and ongoing military escalations, making a formal commitment to abstain highly improbable absent a ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$15,880结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 88%, reflecting stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which has diminished prospects for a breakthrough agreement by June 30. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that Ukraine's membership "is not on the cards for now," underscoring alliance caution without any public Ukrainian pledge to renounce aspirations enshrined in its constitution. Earlier U.S.-brokered Geneva meetings in February yielded no deal on neutrality, and recent rhetoric from figures like Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán emphasizes Ukraine as a buffer zone, yet Kyiv upholds NATO goals amid diplomatic impasse and ongoing military escalations, making a formal commitment to abstain highly improbable absent a ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
交易量
$15,880结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 88%, reflecting stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which has diminished prospects for a breakthrough agreement by June 30. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on March 26 that Ukraine's membership "is not on the cards for now," underscoring alliance caution without any public Ukrainian pledge to renounce aspirations enshrined in its constitution. Earlier U.S.-brokered Geneva meetings in February yielded no deal on neutrality, and recent rhetoric from figures like Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán emphasizes Ukraine as a buffer zone, yet Kyiv upholds NATO goals amid diplomatic impasse and ongoing military escalations, making a formal commitment to abstain highly improbable absent a ceasefire.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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