United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于统一俄罗斯党（ER） 94.9%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.7%
新人民党（NL） <1%
公正俄罗斯——为真理党（SRZP） <1%
$857,259 交易量
$857,259 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
95%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
2%
新人民党（NL）
1%
公正俄罗斯——为真理党（SRZP）
1%
公民平台（GP）
1%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
1%
祖国党
<1%
统一俄罗斯党（ER） 94.9%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF） 1.7%
新人民党（NL） <1%
公正俄罗斯——为真理党（SRZP） <1%
$857,259 交易量
$857,259 交易量
Sep 30, 2026
统一俄罗斯党（ER）
$469,607 交易量
95%
俄罗斯联邦共产党（KPRF）
$53,151 交易量
2%
新人民党（NL）
$34,430 交易量
1%
公正俄罗斯——为真理党（SRZP）
$118,015 交易量
1%
公民平台（GP）
$75,782 交易量
1%
俄罗斯自由民主党（LDPR）
$31,464 交易量
1%
祖国党
$74,810 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
市场开放时间： Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
交易量
$857,259结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
交易量
$857,259结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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