Trader consensus positions CDU at 53.5% implied probability to secure the highest vote share in Berlin's next state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-32% in recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Insa surveys amid the SPD-Green-Left coalition's budget crisis exceeding €4 billion and ongoing infrastructure failures like S-Bahn disruptions. AfD trails at 14% odds on immigration discontent boosting its 18-20% support, while Die Linke (13.5%), Greens (9.7%), and SPD (9.5%) compete in the mid-teens amid coalition infighting. No snap election or no-confidence vote looms before the scheduled 2029 contest, but sustained public dissatisfaction over crime and services favors CDU opposition leader Kai Wegner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 54%
德国选择党 14.2%
林克党 14%
格林党 9.6%
$713,489 交易量
$713,489 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
54%
德国选择党
14%
林克党
14%
格林党
10%
社民党
10%
BSW
1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 54%
德国选择党 14.2%
林克党 14%
格林党 9.6%
$713,489 交易量
$713,489 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$8,210 交易量
54%
德国选择党
$389,095 交易量
14%
林克党
$7,824 交易量
14%
格林党
$22,086 交易量
10%
社民党
$268,350 交易量
10%
BSW
$5,693 交易量
1%
自民党
$7,674 交易量
<1%
FW
$4,557 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus positions CDU at 53.5% implied probability to secure the highest vote share in Berlin's next state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-32% in recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Insa surveys amid the SPD-Green-Left coalition's budget crisis exceeding €4 billion and ongoing infrastructure failures like S-Bahn disruptions. AfD trails at 14% odds on immigration discontent boosting its 18-20% support, while Die Linke (13.5%), Greens (9.7%), and SPD (9.5%) compete in the mid-teens amid coalition infighting. No snap election or no-confidence vote looms before the scheduled 2029 contest, but sustained public dissatisfaction over crime and services favors CDU opposition leader Kai Wegner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$713,489结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus positions CDU at 53.5% implied probability to secure the highest vote share in Berlin's next state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-32% in recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Insa surveys amid the SPD-Green-Left coalition's budget crisis exceeding €4 billion and ongoing infrastructure failures like S-Bahn disruptions. AfD trails at 14% odds on immigration discontent boosting its 18-20% support, while Die Linke (13.5%), Greens (9.7%), and SPD (9.5%) compete in the mid-teens amid coalition infighting. No snap election or no-confidence vote looms before the scheduled 2029 contest, but sustained public dissatisfaction over crime and services favors CDU opposition leader Kai Wegner.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$713,489结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions CDU at 53.5% implied probability to secure the highest vote share in Berlin's next state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-32% in recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Insa surveys amid the SPD-Green-Left coalition's budget crisis exceeding €4 billion and ongoing infrastructure failures like S-Bahn disruptions. AfD trails at 14% odds on immigration discontent boosting its 18-20% support, while Die Linke (13.5%), Greens (9.7%), and SPD (9.5%) compete in the mid-teens amid coalition infighting. No snap election or no-confidence vote looms before the scheduled 2029 contest, but sustained public dissatisfaction over crime and services favors CDU opposition leader Kai Wegner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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