Traders on Polymarket price CDU at 53.5% to win the Berlin state election as the leading party by vote share, reflecting recent polls like the September INSA survey showing CDU at 31%—well ahead of AfD (19%), SPD (14%), and Grüne (12%)—amid voter dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport disruptions, and migration challenges. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's administration has stabilized after the 2023 coalition shift from SPD-Grüne, boosting CDU momentum, while national CDU gains under Friedrich Merz and federal SPD weakness further elevate its path to plurality. AfD's rise caps at 14.2% trader odds due to limited coalition viability; SPD and Grüne tie at 9.5% from eroded urban support. The 2026 election remains distant, with potential for shifts from economic pressures or scandals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 54%
德国选择党 14.0%
林克党 14%
社民党 9.5%
$720,947 交易量
$720,947 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
54%
德国选择党
14%
林克党
14%
社民党
10%
格林党
9%
BSW
1%
自民党
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟 54%
德国选择党 14.0%
林克党 14%
社民党 9.5%
$720,947 交易量
$720,947 交易量
Sep 20, 2026
基民盟
$8,210 交易量
54%
德国选择党
$402,173 交易量
14%
林克党
$7,824 交易量
14%
社民党
$268,350 交易量
10%
格林党
$22,086 交易量
9%
BSW
$5,693 交易量
1%
自民党
$7,674 交易量
<1%
FW
$4,557 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Traders on Polymarket price CDU at 53.5% to win the Berlin state election as the leading party by vote share, reflecting recent polls like the September INSA survey showing CDU at 31%—well ahead of AfD (19%), SPD (14%), and Grüne (12%)—amid voter dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport disruptions, and migration challenges. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's administration has stabilized after the 2023 coalition shift from SPD-Grüne, boosting CDU momentum, while national CDU gains under Friedrich Merz and federal SPD weakness further elevate its path to plurality. AfD's rise caps at 14.2% trader odds due to limited coalition viability; SPD and Grüne tie at 9.5% from eroded urban support. The 2026 election remains distant, with potential for shifts from economic pressures or scandals.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$720,947结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Traders on Polymarket price CDU at 53.5% to win the Berlin state election as the leading party by vote share, reflecting recent polls like the September INSA survey showing CDU at 31%—well ahead of AfD (19%), SPD (14%), and Grüne (12%)—amid voter dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport disruptions, and migration challenges. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's administration has stabilized after the 2023 coalition shift from SPD-Grüne, boosting CDU momentum, while national CDU gains under Friedrich Merz and federal SPD weakness further elevate its path to plurality. AfD's rise caps at 14.2% trader odds due to limited coalition viability; SPD and Grüne tie at 9.5% from eroded urban support. The 2026 election remains distant, with potential for shifts from economic pressures or scandals.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$720,947结束日期
Sep 20, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders on Polymarket price CDU at 53.5% to win the Berlin state election as the leading party by vote share, reflecting recent polls like the September INSA survey showing CDU at 31%—well ahead of AfD (19%), SPD (14%), and Grüne (12%)—amid voter dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition's handling of housing shortages, public transport disruptions, and migration challenges. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's administration has stabilized after the 2023 coalition shift from SPD-Grüne, boosting CDU momentum, while national CDU gains under Friedrich Merz and federal SPD weakness further elevate its path to plurality. AfD's rise caps at 14.2% trader odds due to limited coalition viability; SPD and Grüne tie at 9.5% from eroded urban support. The 2026 election remains distant, with potential for shifts from economic pressures or scandals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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