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政治·全球选举

柏林州选举获胜者

icon for 柏林州选举获胜者
政治·全球选举

柏林州选举获胜者

基民盟 37%

林克党 20%

格林党 19.6%

德国选择党 18.8%

Polymarket

$2,595,153 交易量

基民盟 37%

林克党 20%

格林党 19.6%

德国选择党 18.8%

Polymarket

$2,595,153 交易量

icon for 基民盟

基民盟

$18,330 交易量

37%

icon for 林克党

林克党

$14,437 交易量

20%

icon for 格林党

格林党

$30,356 交易量

20%

icon for 德国选择党

德国选择党

$2,194,552 交易量

19%

icon for 社民党

社民党

$290,553 交易量

9%

icon for BSW

BSW

$27,919 交易量

<1%

icon for 自民党

自民党

$11,203 交易量

<1%

icon for FW

FW

$7,804 交易量

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus prices CDU as the frontrunner at 37% implied probability for plurality victory in Berlin's September 20 state election under mixed-member proportional representation, despite late April Infratest dimap and INSA polls showing CDU slipping to 19-21% amid Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's low 17% approval rating. Recent surveys reflect a four-way tie around 18% for challengers Grüne (up +2 points), Linke, and AfD, with SPD trailing at 14-17% as junior coalition partner, driving their clustered odds near 19% and SPD's 9.5%. Incumbency advantages from CDU's 2023 win (28%) and coalition stability underpin trader optimism for a CDU recovery, contrasting poll averages near 20%, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days beyond steady declines for the grand coalition.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$2,595,153
结束日期
2026-09-20
市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus prices CDU as the frontrunner at 37% implied probability for plurality victory in Berlin's September 20 state election under mixed-member proportional representation, despite late April Infratest dimap and INSA polls showing CDU slipping to 19-21% amid Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's low 17% approval rating. Recent surveys reflect a four-way tie around 18% for challengers Grüne (up +2 points), Linke, and AfD, with SPD trailing at 14-17% as junior coalition partner, driving their clustered odds near 19% and SPD's 9.5%. Incumbency advantages from CDU's 2023 win (28%) and coalition stability underpin trader optimism for a CDU recovery, contrasting poll averages near 20%, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days beyond steady declines for the grand coalition.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$2,595,153
结束日期
2026-09-20
市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"柏林州选举获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"基民盟"，概率为 37%，其次是"林克党"，概率为 20%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 37¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 37%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"柏林州选举获胜者"已产生 $2.6 million 的总交易量（自Dec 2, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"柏林州选举获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"柏林州选举获胜者"的当前领先者是"基民盟"，概率为 37%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 37%。紧随其后的结果是"林克党"，概率为 20%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"柏林州选举获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。