Kyriakos Mitsotakis leads the market as incumbent prime minister heading New Democracy, the party that secured majorities in the 2023 elections and maintains a polling edge into the scheduled spring 2027 parliamentary vote. Recent statements from Mitsotakis confirming the full term will run until then, rather than an earlier contest, have reinforced trader expectations of continuity under the current government amid ongoing economic pressures and party scandals. The fragmented opposition, including Alexis Tsipras’s new ELAS formation and smaller parties such as those led by Kyriakos Velopoulos or Nikos Androulakis, limits credible alternatives, while procedural factors like the EU Council presidency starting in July 2027 further anchor the timeline. Low probabilities for other listed figures reflect limited polling traction or structural barriers to forming a government.