Divisions within France's Socialist Party have emerged as the dominant factor elevating the probability of cancellation for the October 2026 United Left primary. Internal opposition intensified after March 2026 municipal elections, with party figures expressing reluctance to participate in a formal contest involving Ecologists, former La France Insoumise members, and smaller groups, preferring informal coordination instead. This stems from disputes over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential vote. Marine Tondelier holds institutional backing from her party's December 2025 designation, while François Ruffin, Benjamin Lucas-Lundy, Clémentine Autain, and others lack comparable unified support. Traders price these dynamics as significant barriers to completing the process, consistent with historical patterns of left-wing coalition fragility in France.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于已取消 53%
François Ruffin 11.8%
Marine Tondelier 12%
本杰明·卢卡斯-伦迪 3.9%
$83,522 交易量
$83,522 交易量
2026-10-11
已取消
53%
François Ruffin
7%
Marine Tondelier
12%
本杰明·卢卡斯-伦迪
4%
Clémentine Autain
3%
Lydie Massard
1%
已取消 53%
François Ruffin 11.8%
Marine Tondelier 12%
本杰明·卢卡斯-伦迪 3.9%
$83,522 交易量
$83,522 交易量
2026-10-11
已取消
$24,089 交易量
53%
François Ruffin
$22,663 交易量
7%
Marine Tondelier
$30,521 交易量
12%
本杰明·卢卡斯-伦迪
$344 交易量
4%
Clémentine Autain
$4,193 交易量
3%
Lydie Massard
$1,712 交易量
1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Divisions within France's Socialist Party have emerged as the dominant factor elevating the probability of cancellation for the October 2026 United Left primary. Internal opposition intensified after March 2026 municipal elections, with party figures expressing reluctance to participate in a formal contest involving Ecologists, former La France Insoumise members, and smaller groups, preferring informal coordination instead. This stems from disputes over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential vote. Marine Tondelier holds institutional backing from her party's December 2025 designation, while François Ruffin, Benjamin Lucas-Lundy, Clémentine Autain, and others lack comparable unified support. Traders price these dynamics as significant barriers to completing the process, consistent with historical patterns of left-wing coalition fragility in France.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$83,522结束日期
2026-10-11市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Divisions within France's Socialist Party have emerged as the dominant factor elevating the probability of cancellation for the October 2026 United Left primary. Internal opposition intensified after March 2026 municipal elections, with party figures expressing reluctance to participate in a formal contest involving Ecologists, former La France Insoumise members, and smaller groups, preferring informal coordination instead. This stems from disputes over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential vote. Marine Tondelier holds institutional backing from her party's December 2025 designation, while François Ruffin, Benjamin Lucas-Lundy, Clémentine Autain, and others lack comparable unified support. Traders price these dynamics as significant barriers to completing the process, consistent with historical patterns of left-wing coalition fragility in France.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$83,522结束日期
2026-10-11市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divisions within France's Socialist Party have emerged as the dominant factor elevating the probability of cancellation for the October 2026 United Left primary. Internal opposition intensified after March 2026 municipal elections, with party figures expressing reluctance to participate in a formal contest involving Ecologists, former La France Insoumise members, and smaller groups, preferring informal coordination instead. This stems from disputes over alliances and strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential vote. Marine Tondelier holds institutional backing from her party's December 2025 designation, while François Ruffin, Benjamin Lucas-Lundy, Clémentine Autain, and others lack comparable unified support. Traders price these dynamics as significant barriers to completing the process, consistent with historical patterns of left-wing coalition fragility in France.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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