Trader consensus prices CDU at 87.5% implied probability for second place in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl on September 6, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage polls where AfD leads at 38%, well ahead of CDU's 25% and distant third-place Die Linke at 13%. The latest INSA survey from March 17-24 (published March 25) shows no material shift from January trends, with AfD's strength in eastern Germany driven by voter concerns over migration and economic policy amid the CDU-led government's transition to new Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze in late January. Other parties trail far behind the 5% threshold in some cases, minimizing upset risk, though a late CDU surge or polling error could elevate AfD to second. Seat projections under proportional representation reinforce CDU's lock on runner-up status absent major catalysts before summer.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于基民盟 88%
AfD 8%
绿党 1.0%
BSW 1.0%
$38,879 交易量
$38,879 交易量
2026-09-06
基民盟
88%
AfD
8%
绿党
1%
BSW
1%
社民党
1%
自民党
1%
左翼党
1%
基民盟 88%
AfD 8%
绿党 1.0%
BSW 1.0%
$38,879 交易量
$38,879 交易量
2026-09-06
基民盟
$14,801 交易量
88%
AfD
$426 交易量
8%
绿党
$547 交易量
1%
BSW
$307 交易量
1%
社民党
$21,391 交易量
1%
自民党
$1,089 交易量
1%
左翼党
$317 交易量
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Trader consensus prices CDU at 87.5% implied probability for second place in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl on September 6, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage polls where AfD leads at 38%, well ahead of CDU's 25% and distant third-place Die Linke at 13%. The latest INSA survey from March 17-24 (published March 25) shows no material shift from January trends, with AfD's strength in eastern Germany driven by voter concerns over migration and economic policy amid the CDU-led government's transition to new Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze in late January. Other parties trail far behind the 5% threshold in some cases, minimizing upset risk, though a late CDU surge or polling error could elevate AfD to second. Seat projections under proportional representation reinforce CDU's lock on runner-up status absent major catalysts before summer.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 11:16 PM ET
交易量
$38,879结束日期
2026-09-06市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 11:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Trader consensus prices CDU at 87.5% implied probability for second place in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl on September 6, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage polls where AfD leads at 38%, well ahead of CDU's 25% and distant third-place Die Linke at 13%. The latest INSA survey from March 17-24 (published March 25) shows no material shift from January trends, with AfD's strength in eastern Germany driven by voter concerns over migration and economic policy amid the CDU-led government's transition to new Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze in late January. Other parties trail far behind the 5% threshold in some cases, minimizing upset risk, though a late CDU surge or polling error could elevate AfD to second. Seat projections under proportional representation reinforce CDU's lock on runner-up status absent major catalysts before summer.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes received (Zweitstimme), with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
交易量
$38,879结束日期
2026-09-06市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 11:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices CDU at 87.5% implied probability for second place in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl on September 6, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage polls where AfD leads at 38%, well ahead of CDU's 25% and distant third-place Die Linke at 13%. The latest INSA survey from March 17-24 (published March 25) shows no material shift from January trends, with AfD's strength in eastern Germany driven by voter concerns over migration and economic policy amid the CDU-led government's transition to new Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze in late January. Other parties trail far behind the 5% threshold in some cases, minimizing upset risk, though a late CDU surge or polling error could elevate AfD to second. Seat projections under proportional representation reinforce CDU's lock on runner-up status absent major catalysts before summer.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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