The collapse of Chancellor Scholz's SPD-Greens-FDP coalition, triggered by his dismissal of Finance Minister Lindner on November 6 and subsequent loss of a confidence vote on December 16, has set the stage for a snap election on February 23, 2025, driving trader consensus toward an 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027. Current polls show CDU/CSU leading at around 32%, well ahead of SPD at 15%, positioning opposition leader Friedrich Merz to pursue a preferred Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens) rather than partnering with a weakened SPD, as Merz has signaled reluctance for another grand coalition. Historical precedents like Angela Merkel's grand coalitions, which completed full terms from 2005-2009 and 2013-2017 without early dissolution, further bolster expectations of stability if formed, while the short pre-2027 window post-election limits collapse risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$32,001 交易量
$32,001 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$32,001 交易量
$32,001 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The collapse of Chancellor Scholz's SPD-Greens-FDP coalition, triggered by his dismissal of Finance Minister Lindner on November 6 and subsequent loss of a confidence vote on December 16, has set the stage for a snap election on February 23, 2025, driving trader consensus toward an 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027. Current polls show CDU/CSU leading at around 32%, well ahead of SPD at 15%, positioning opposition leader Friedrich Merz to pursue a preferred Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens) rather than partnering with a weakened SPD, as Merz has signaled reluctance for another grand coalition. Historical precedents like Angela Merkel's grand coalitions, which completed full terms from 2005-2009 and 2013-2017 without early dissolution, further bolster expectations of stability if formed, while the short pre-2027 window post-election limits collapse risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
交易量
$32,001结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The collapse of Chancellor Scholz's SPD-Greens-FDP coalition, triggered by his dismissal of Finance Minister Lindner on November 6 and subsequent loss of a confidence vote on December 16, has set the stage for a snap election on February 23, 2025, driving trader consensus toward an 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027. Current polls show CDU/CSU leading at around 32%, well ahead of SPD at 15%, positioning opposition leader Friedrich Merz to pursue a preferred Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens) rather than partnering with a weakened SPD, as Merz has signaled reluctance for another grand coalition. Historical precedents like Angela Merkel's grand coalitions, which completed full terms from 2005-2009 and 2013-2017 without early dissolution, further bolster expectations of stability if formed, while the short pre-2027 window post-election limits collapse risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
交易量
$32,001结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The collapse of Chancellor Scholz's SPD-Greens-FDP coalition, triggered by his dismissal of Finance Minister Lindner on November 6 and subsequent loss of a confidence vote on December 16, has set the stage for a snap election on February 23, 2025, driving trader consensus toward an 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027. Current polls show CDU/CSU leading at around 32%, well ahead of SPD at 15%, positioning opposition leader Friedrich Merz to pursue a preferred Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens) rather than partnering with a weakened SPD, as Merz has signaled reluctance for another grand coalition. Historical precedents like Angela Merkel's grand coalitions, which completed full terms from 2005-2009 and 2013-2017 without early dissolution, further bolster expectations of stability if formed, while the short pre-2027 window post-election limits collapse risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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