Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 98% probability of no change to the federal funds rate—currently targeted at 3.50%–3.75%—at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by Fed Chair Powell's March 30 remarks affirming policy is in a "good place" to monitor energy shocks and inflation without urgency for adjustment. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, near the 2% target, supporting the March dot plot's projection of just one cut later in 2026 despite softer February nonfarm payrolls. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects balanced risks, though upside surprises in March CPI (due April 10) or renewed inflation pressures could prompt a reassessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于不变 98.0%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
下降25个基点 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$45,486,833 交易量
$45,486,833 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
<1%
下降25个基点
1%
不变
98%
提高25个基点以上
1%
不变 98.0%
提高25个基点以上 <1%
下降25个基点 <1%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$45,486,833 交易量
$45,486,833 交易量
2026-04-29
降息50个基点以上
$16,010,648 交易量
<1%
下降25个基点
$9,375,307 交易量
1%
不变
$9,621,192 交易量
98%
提高25个基点以上
$10,480,203 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 98% probability of no change to the federal funds rate—currently targeted at 3.50%–3.75%—at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by Fed Chair Powell's March 30 remarks affirming policy is in a "good place" to monitor energy shocks and inflation without urgency for adjustment. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, near the 2% target, supporting the March dot plot's projection of just one cut later in 2026 despite softer February nonfarm payrolls. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects balanced risks, though upside surprises in March CPI (due April 10) or renewed inflation pressures could prompt a reassessment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$45,486,833结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 98% probability of no change to the federal funds rate—currently targeted at 3.50%–3.75%—at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by Fed Chair Powell's March 30 remarks affirming policy is in a "good place" to monitor energy shocks and inflation without urgency for adjustment. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, near the 2% target, supporting the March dot plot's projection of just one cut later in 2026 despite softer February nonfarm payrolls. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects balanced risks, though upside surprises in March CPI (due April 10) or renewed inflation pressures could prompt a reassessment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$45,486,833结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 98% probability of no change to the federal funds rate—currently targeted at 3.50%–3.75%—at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by Fed Chair Powell's March 30 remarks affirming policy is in a "good place" to monitor energy shocks and inflation without urgency for adjustment. February 2026 CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year, near the 2% target, supporting the March dot plot's projection of just one cut later in 2026 despite softer February nonfarm payrolls. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects balanced risks, though upside surprises in March CPI (due April 10) or renewed inflation pressures could prompt a reassessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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